New coin launch, how to play? Starting from SOPH, let's talk about how to make money in the first wave.

Question

Coinbase International has launched a new Perptual Futures product - SOPH-PERP, which is expected to open for trading on Coinbase International and the Advanced platform starting from June 5, 2025, at 17:30 (Beijing Time).

When new coins go live, they often experience the most dramatic fluctuations, even going through stages of "surging first and then plummeting." However, this also presents a great opportunity for us to build short-term models and make high-odds trades. Today, let's not discuss the background of the SOPH project itself; let's change our perspective:

If you encounter a new coin that you are not familiar with and it has just been launched, how do you determine whether it is worth investing in? How can you use technical indicators to assess the rhythm? And how should you look at the subsequent developments?

New coins are launched: How to determine if they are worth trading?

A common mistake when a new coin is just launched is to judge "whether it is worth buying" solely based on the theme or the investment institution. However, in the early stages of the market, prices are often more influenced by trading structures, liquidity controllers, and emotional capital.

What should we really pay attention to?

Is the trading depth solid?

Are there obvious situations of "large slippage" and "empty order book"? Focus mainly on indicators such as trading volume and bid-ask spread.

Is the order volume evenly distributed at key price levels? For example, you can pay attention to the chip distribution indicator. If you find that the order book is dense but suddenly sees a large volume sell-off, it is likely that institutions are liquidating positions or inducing retail investors to buy.

Is the funding rate extreme?

When perpetual futures were just launched, it was normal for the funding rate to fluctuate significantly.

If you find that the funding rate has consistently been above 0.1% within a few hours of going live, or even higher, be cautious: this is a typical structure of excessive long positions that can easily be reversed.

K-line rhythm for a few hours after the opening

Is there a massive breakout after a period of continuous shrinking volume and sideways movement? This is a common rhythm for market makers to accumulate positions and then push up.

Has there been a rapid rebound after a "pin-style crash"? This could be a possible signal for accumulation and washout.

At this point, what you should be concerned about is not whether "SOPH is a good project," but rather:

"Is anyone pushing the market? Is there a short-term advantage in the market structure?"

You can directly pull up key indicators on AiCoin to help assess these issues. Remember, short-term trading does not focus on value but on structure and rhythm.

Technical indicators should be fast and short, do not apply traditional logic.

When facing new coins, do not use traditional trend strategies. Why?

Because the data is insufficient, the indicators are distorted.

The MACD, RSI, and KD indicators that we used to use in the past relied on a market environment with a stable cycle and a clear trend. In the early stage of new currency, it tends to be a state of high volatility, little data, and volatile direction, so it is necessary to use a "fast, short, and responsive" indicator system. There are some indicators that you can pay attention to in the early stage of the new currency, for your reference:

EMA short-term crossover (e.g., 5EMA/13EMA)

Faster than the traditional 60/120 EMA, suitable for capturing breakout points.

Can be used with increased trading volume to determine the authenticity of a breakout.

Although AiCoin defaults to providing the 24-day and 52-day EMA, you can completely customize the indicator settings to set shorter period EMAs or other technical indicators according to your trading pace, aligning more closely with the "fast-paced, short volatility" trading characteristics of new coins.

Bollinger Bands + ATR Dynamic Bandwidth to Determine Volatility Outbreaks

The Bollinger Bands are rapidly widening + the K-line closes at the upper band, which can be seen as a "short-term momentum start" signal.

The ATR enlargement indicates an increase in volatility expectations, suitable for enabling tighter take profit/stop loss settings.

OI (Open Interest) + Funding Rate Linked Indicator

The rapid increase in OI + positive funding rates indicates that bulls are concentrating on building positions.

The rapidly rising OI + negative funding rate may indicate a short-seller driven sell-off and a potential oversold rebound opportunity.

In fact, the indicators used in the second and third points can also be customized and generated in AiCoin just like the first point. Whether it's volatility judgment or contract sentiment, as long as you want, the indicator can "write it yourself". Don't forget, AiCoin can also intelligently help you write indicators, and you can do it without code, so remember to use it well!

The market rhythm is different, and the indicators must change accordingly. Fixed templates may not be suitable for the fast-paced market of new coins; to make more accurate judgments, flexible custom logic must be used.

What's next? Don't miss the three key rhythm points.

You may not plan to enter the market as soon as you go online, but you should know which event rhythms to judge whether it is "worth paying attention to again." The following three are key points we recommend keeping an eye on:

Is there an official airdrop or staking plan? Many new coins will launch staking, staking incentives or governance airdrops after launch, which are all key opportunities to boost or regather liquidity in the short term.

Is there a new listing of spot trading on mainstream exchanges? SOPH has been launched on mainstream exchanges (such as Binance, OKX) for spot trading, while also offering contract trading on Coinbase. The combination of spot + contract means it already has a complete trading ecosystem, which provides possibilities for advanced strategies such as arbitrage and basis squeeze.

Are there any whales or project addresses frequently transferring funds? It is recommended to pay attention to the top 50 addresses of SOPH tokens and monitor the movements of major orders. A large amount of inflow and outflow on the chain, accompanied by price fluctuations, often indicates that the market may change.

Every coin has its own life cycle, but the stage that has the best opportunity to capture high-odds trades is always the "early launch" phase.

You don't need to follow trends every time, nor do you have to become an expert in researching this project. However, you can have a set of "standard procedures for quickly assessing the trading value when a new coin is launched" and obtain the chips offered by the market as soon as the market starts to move. This is the greatest advantage of being a trader!