Is The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Coming To An End?

Bitcoin has been notorious for over a decade for its sharp price fluctuations and associated four-year cycles. These cycles were characterized by halvings, parabolic price rises, and subsequent massive corrections. However, there are now growing signs that this rhythm is changing – not by chance, but due to fundamental shifts in supply, demand, and market structure. This article highlights the background, data, and developments that point to a structural change.

The End of Volatility as the Norm

Traditionally, Bitcoin has been an extremely volatile asset. Previous cycles saw price declines of over 80%, while bull markets often led to new highs within a few months. Today, however, corrections are significantly flatter. Declines of 25–30% take months to consolidate, and the range of volatility has narrowed considerably – to about half of what it was in 2021 and a third of the 2017 level.

Bitcoin price (Image: Tradingview)

ADVERTISEMENTInstead of a sharp rise, the price trend is increasingly steady. This points to a new market behavior that is less driven by speculative impulses and more by a sustained inflow of capital.

The Institutional Shift

A key factor in the changing cycle is the growing involvement of institutional players. Large companies, funds, and even governments are now investing in Bitcoin in a targeted and long-term manner. Products such as exchange-traded Bitcoin ETFs and strategic Bitcoin reserves at the corporate level are creating lasting demand that is not focused on short-term gains.

This structural demand differs fundamentally from the behavior of the previously dominant private investors. Institutional investors are less prone to panic selling, act in a more planned manner, and are often interested in long-term capital preservation.

ADVERTISEMENT## Bitcoin as Monetary Infrastructure

While Bitcoin was previously perceived primarily as an object of speculation, the cryptocurrency is increasingly becoming a central element of a new financial architecture. At the same time, stablecoins are continuing to spread rapidly. Regulatory initiatives in the US and interest from major payment service providers such as Shopify, Square, and Stripe show that digital currencies are gradually being integrated into everyday life.

This development is creating the infrastructural foundations for Bitcoin to function not only as a store of value in the future, but also as a strategic component of a digital currency system.

The Role of Government Debt

The global debt crisis, particularly in the US, is forcing governments to make difficult decisions. A way out via growth or austerity measures is considered unlikely. In many cases, the only option left is to deliberately fuel inflation in order to reduce real debt burdens.

In such an environment, “hard” assets such as Bitcoin and gold are becoming more attractive. Investors seeking to protect themselves against purchasing power losses are increasingly focusing their portfolios on inflation-resistant asset classes. Bitcoin is playing an increasingly important role in this context – not only as a hedge, but also as a strategic anchor.

Related article: Financial system on the brink: How inflation, debt and the banking crisis are making Bitcoin a safe haven

Bitcoin as a Control Instrument and Reserve Option

The idea that Bitcoin could function as a global reserve currency in the long term is no longer just being discussed in niche circles. Established market participants and CEOs of large companies are also expressing thoughts in this direction. The lack of trust in traditional fiat currencies, especially in times of fiscal uncertainty, favors an alternative, non-manipulable store of value.

ADVERTISEMENTIn this context, Bitcoin fulfills a similar function to that of gold in previous centuries: it is a decentralized, censorship-resistant asset with no counterparty risk. This becomes particularly important in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Resilience in Crisis Scenarios

A frequently voiced criticism of Bitcoin has been its dependence on speculative exaggerations or inflationary scenarios. However, even in times of deflation or geopolitical crises, Bitcoin has proven to be resilient. Its limited supply, independence from central authorities, and high liquidity make Bitcoin suitable as “digital gold” – especially when traditional markets are under stress.

In a world where systemic risks such as war, AI disruption, and debt cascades are becoming more likely, Bitcoin offers a safe haven for capital flight.

Related article: Escalation in the Middle East: Impact on the economy, markets, and Bitcoin

From Hype to Strategic Allocation

A key difference in the current cycle lies in the behavior of market participants. Whereas short-term gains and FOMO (fear of missing out) used to dominate, a pattern of strategic, disciplined capital accumulation is now emerging. Long-term holders are not selling even when new all-time highs are being reached, but are continuing to accumulate.

The price development is more like a staircase than a rocket – with consolidated support zones at $20k, $40k, $60k and $95k. This creates confidence and stability, even for large investors.

The Political Dimension

As Bitcoin grows in importance, so does political pressure. In the US and Europe, regulators and lawmakers must grapple with the question of what role Bitcoin should play in the future financial system. Educational initiatives and political lobbying are gaining momentum to create a regulatory environment that allows innovation while minimizing risk.

In this context, it is clear that Bitcoin is no longer a technical experiment, but a globally relevant issue with profound implications for the economy, society, and politics.

The Quiet Revolution

The classic four-year cycle logic may not have disappeared, but it no longer dominates market activity. It is being replaced by a slow but profound transformation. From speculative euphoria to monetary infrastructure. From emotional herd instinct to institutional discipline.

This new era is less spectacular, but potentially more sustainable. Those waiting for quick price gains may overlook the real revolution – the quiet but unstoppable establishment of Bitcoin as a global store of value, strategic asset, and potential cornerstone of a future, more decentralized monetary system.

Author

Ed Prinz serves as chairman of Austria’s most renowned non-profit organization specializing in blockchain technology. DLT Austria is actively involved in educating and promoting the value and application possibilities of distributed ledger technology. This is done through educational events, meetups, workshops, and open discussion forums, all in voluntary collaboration with leading industry players.

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Disclaimer

This is my personal opinion and not financial advice.

For this reason, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information in this article. If you are unsure, you should consult a qualified advisor whom you trust. This article does not make any guarantees or promises regarding profits. All statements in this and other articles are my personal opinion.