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Overview of AI Investment in the First Half of 2025: 58% of Global Venture Capital Funds Flowing to AI
Author: Catalaize
Compiled by: Felix, PANews
From January to June 2025, global investment in AI startups far exceeded that of the first half of 2024. In just the first quarter of 2025, it attracted about $60 billion to $73 billion, which is already more than half of the total for all of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of over 100%. In the first quarter, the venture capital received by AI companies accounted for about 58% of the total, while a year ago this ratio was about 28%. This clearly indicates investors' "AI FOMO" mentality.
This means that capital is concentrating in the AI field on an unprecedented scale, and major institutions will double down on those companies that are believed to succeed in the AI arena, which may reshape the funding allocation landscape for the second half of the year.
Huge financing dominated by a few giants
During this period, the extremely large late-stage financing rounds led by leading companies were particularly prominent. In March, OpenAI raised $40 billion (the largest private financing round in history), reaching a valuation of $300 billion, while Anthropic's $3.5 billion Series E funding brought its valuation to $61.5 billion. Several other deals, such as Safe Superintelligence's $2 billion funding and Neuralink's $650 million Series E financing, further increased the total.
This means that a "winner-takes-all" situation is concentrating most of the funds into the hands of a very few companies, thereby squeezing out the funding that could have potentially flowed to early-stage or smaller enterprises.
Trading Volume under the Barbell Effect
In addition to the highly publicized large-scale financing, there has been a surge in medium-sized transactions, while seed round financing activities remain selective. The median for seed round financing in the AI sector has reached approximately $15 million (with an average of about $41 million), and the median for Series A financing is around $75 million to $80 million, both well above historical averages (the global median for Series A financing across all industries in 2022 was about $10 million). The median for Series C and D growth-stage financing is concentrated between $250 million and $300 million, with the average being pushed higher due to extreme cases like OpenAI.
This means that the expansion of trading scale reflects intense competition among industry leaders. Investors who cannot write nine-figure checks may turn to niche markets or earlier-stage investments, while any startup claiming to have AI narratives can secure larger-scale funding and higher valuations.
Industry and Regional Concentration
Participants in the generative AI and core model/infrastructure sectors attracted over $45 billion in funding in the first half of the year, accounting for more than 95% of the total disclosed funding. In contrast, application-based AI verticals are relatively underfunded (approximately $700 million in healthcare/biotechnology; about $2 to $3 billion in fintech/corporate sectors). Geographically, the United States (especially Silicon Valley) dominates: over 99% of global AI funding in the first half of the year flowed to companies headquartered in the U.S. Asia and Europe lag behind, with China's largest deal (Zhipu AI) raising $247 million; while Europe saw only a few medium-sized financing rounds (for example, Latent Labs in the UK raised $50 million).
This means: the current boom is centered around the United States, led by a few large companies; it is expected that governments and investors outside the United States will respond in the second half of the year by establishing national AI funds, providing incentives, or making cross-border investments to avoid falling behind.
Outlook for the Second Half of the Year: High Enthusiasm but Caution Remains
Despite record capital investments, investor caution is returning. Many financing rounds in the first half of the year focused on strategic or corporate investors (cloud service providers, chip manufacturers, defense companies), indicating that investors prefer projects with practical application scenarios and strategic synergies. As we enter the second half of the year, investors will closely monitor the performance of startups that have secured large amounts of funding in terms of product delivery, revenue, and regulatory compliance, especially in the context of increasing competition.
This means that in the second half of the year, capital may favor companies that demonstrate efficiency and real market appeal—especially "tools and shovels" suppliers (tools, chips, enterprise software), which will raise the entry barrier for newcomers, consolidate the advantages of existing companies, while posing challenges to new entrants.
Importance
The first half of 2025 is a crucial moment for AI investment. The significant influx of capital into the AI sector (and its tilt towards a few participants and regions) will shape the innovation landscape and competitive dynamics for the coming years. For investors, understanding the flow of funds and the reasons behind it will be critical for navigating the second half of 2025. Will the winners prove their valuations are justified, or will there be a correction and re-focusing? The data from the first half of the year provides early clues for portfolio strategies, policy considerations (such as antitrust and national security issues), and the fundraising prospects for founders in the upcoming six months.
The most noteworthy funding in the AI field over the past month
Macroeconomic and Trend Analysis
1. Financing Momentum: Unprecedented Surge Year-on-Year
In the first half of 2025, venture capital investment in AI startups far exceeded the levels seen in the same period of 2024. Reliable data shows that approximately $70 billion flowed into AI companies in just the first quarter, surpassing half of the total funding in the AI sector for the entire year of 2024. This means that the funding amount in the first half of 2025 is more than double that of the first half of 2024 (in USD).
In the first quarter of 2025, the share of AI in global venture capital surged to about 53% to 58%, compared to approximately 25% to 30% a year ago. This means that currently more than half of global venture capital is directed towards the AI field.
Driving factors: A few large financings; without these, global venture capital funding is roughly flat year-on-year.
Impact on the second half of 2025: Overall venture capital indicators may depend on the trading volume in the AI sector; any cooling of enthusiasm in the AI field could lower the overall financing levels.
2. Financing Stage: Late-stage financing has increased significantly, while early-stage financing is uneven
Data shows that the trading volume in the AI field exhibits a barbell distribution.
Late-stage (C+ round) dominates: In the first quarter of 2025, the total amount of late-stage financing across all industries reached 81 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of approximately 147%, with AI being the main driving force.
Early Stage: The number of transactions has decreased (global early stage transactions have decreased by about 19% year-on-year), but the scale of financing has significantly increased.
Key points: Investors are putting funds into fewer, larger stakes projects - showing confidence in specific AI themes while being cautious in other areas. This polarization is expected to continue in the second half of the year.
3. Industry Allocation: Basic Model and Infrastructure Construction
Over 95% of AI funding is chasing generative AI model developers and their infrastructure (cloud computing, chips, development platforms). OpenAI and Anthropic alone attracted about 60% of the funding in the AI sector in the first half of the year.
In contrast, vertical application areas are simply negligible:
Investor logic: control the "AI stack"; vertical applications may become commoditized (note: the unique value of brands and other characteristics that commodities originally had may disappear due to sufficient market competition) or face longer GTM cycles.
4. Geographic Distribution: Concentrated in the United States, with the Bay Area accounting for half of the financing amount
In the first quarter, 71% to 73% of global venture capital flowed to North America; in terms of value, approximately 99% of the funding in the AI sector is concentrated in the United States. The San Francisco Bay Area (including OpenAI) accounts for nearly half of the global venture capital.
Europe, the Middle East, and Africa: Only a few medium-sized AI deals (Latent Labs raised $50 million, Speedata raised $44 million).
Asia-Pacific Region: In the first quarter of 2025, only $1.8 billion was raised for AI (a year-on-year decrease of 50%); the largest round of financing in China was the $247 million raised by Zhipu AI.
In summary: The United States has an advantage in funding in this "AI arms race."
5. Investor Landscape:
Sovereign wealth funds and cross-border funds (Saudi Arabia's Prosperity7, Malaysia's Khazanah, Thrive Capital) led multiple rounds of financing.
The corporate venture capital departments of large tech companies (Microsoft, Salesforce, Google) are very active.
Net effect: Capital influx from all parties.
Half-Year Forward Outlook:
Regulatory Milestone
Governments around the world are still exploring how to respond to AI. In the European Union, it is expected that the AI Act may be finalized by the end of 2025. In the second half of the year, startups are expected to launch a lobbying battle, and there may also be early compliance signals. In the United States, any movements from the executive order on AI and Congress—hearings, proposed legislation—will be crucial. New regulations surrounding data usage, model transparency, or chip export controls could reshape the economic conditions for startups and investor confidence.
In addition, attention should also be paid to the AI procurement situation of the U.S. government—rumors about a multi-billion dollar plan may provide important demand signals for AI companies focused on enterprises.
IPO Channels and Exit Strategies
Despite the surge in private financing in 2025, there have yet to be any groundbreaking AI IPOs. This situation may change in the second half of the year. Companies like Databricks, Stripe (AI-related), and even OpenAI could be potential IPO candidates.
At the same time, M&A activities may escalate. Large tech companies may take action: Google, Microsoft, or Nvidia may acquire smaller AI teams or core infrastructure providers. A significant AI acquisition could reshape the competitive landscape and provide returns for venture capital firms.
Technological Breakthroughs and Product Launches
Anticipating the disclosure of significant news: it could be OpenAI's next-generation model or hardware launched in collaboration by Sam Altman and Jony Ive.
Any significant breakthrough in capabilities (for example, models capable of reasoning or models that reduce costs by ten times) could validate the overvaluation and trigger a new wave of capital.
Also pay attention to enterprise-level attractiveness—API sales, SaaS adoption status, and revenue situation. However, risks also exist; once a security incident or public abuse occurs, it may provoke strong regulatory opposition, thereby dampening market sentiment.
In summary, the technological and business execution in the second half of the year will determine whether the optimism of the first half can be sustained.
Regulatory and Ethical Resistance
If the government or the public feels that AI has gotten out of control, it is expected that intervention measures will be swiftly implemented: for example, the implementation of a licensing system, imposing fines in accordance with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), or imposing strict restrictions on certain models.
Moral resistance: Scandals, mass layoffs caused by automation, or AI-generated misinformation can quickly change market sentiment, making it harder to invest funds.
Calculation and Talent Constraints
The lifeblood of AI—graphics processing units (GPUs) and elite engineers—remains scarce.
GPU bottlenecks may force underfunded teams to exit, while well-funded companies will hoard computing resources.
The competition for talent is intensifying, with OpenAI and Google both recruiting top talent.
The burning money speed is soaring: some startups spend over $100 million a year on cloud services, yet fail to launch products quickly. If the gap between costs and products continues to widen, a financing discount and a brutal market reset are expected.
Model Commercialization
Ironically, the competition among large language models (LLMs) is driving rapid commercialization. Open-source releases (such as Meta's LLaMA and Mistral) blur the differences.
The moat is shifting towards data quality, distribution channels, or vertical integration.
If OpenAI starts to lose to streamlined open-source participants or models developed independently by companies, venture capitalists may reassess the true meaning of "defensibility."
The second half of the year may sound the alarm: not every meticulously tuned wrapper deserves a valuation of 1 billion dollars.
2025 Second Half Forecast
Financing scale has slowed down, but remains at a high level
After the surge in the first half of the year, the trading pace will slow down. It is expected that there will no longer be financing rounds of $40 billion, but the quarterly AI financing amount will still be twice that of the 2024 level. The boom continues, but it is more stable.
Major liquidity event is coming
A withdrawal of over ten billion dollars is expected at least once: an IPO (e.g., Databricks) or acquisition by a traditional company trying to maintain its influence.
This will affect investor sentiment and reset pricing expectations.
The clear layering of the startup ecosystem will become evident by the fourth quarter, and differentiation will be apparent:
The top 5-10 AI companies (with strong funding and development momentum) will gradually exit and may attract talent through acquisitions.
What about startups that are in the middle tier or overly hyped but have not yet achieved product-market fit? Many will transform, experience valuation adjustments, or gradually disappear.
Investors will reward the ability to generate income, rather than just the research plans or the investment in GPUs.
Final Conclusion
The next six months will put AI narratives to the test. Will 2025 be the beginning of continuous change, or a bubble that needs correction?
Some bubbles may burst, but the core argument still holds. AI remains the most attractive frontier in the venture capital field, but the flow of funds will be more cautious.
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