Mysterious Trader Predicts Election Outcome and Earns Huge Profits
A mysterious trader made a profit of almost $50 million in the prediction market related to the US presidential election. The trader, known as the "Trump Whale," was betting not only that Trump would win the presidential election, but also that he would win the popular vote, a view that was considered unlikely by many political observers at the time.
The trader who goes by "Théo" has also bet that Trump will win key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He placed his bets through four anonymous accounts on a cryptocurrency prediction platform. Although he refuses to reveal his true identity, he has kept in touch with the media to share his analysis and predictions.
Théo claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks. He began using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polling data this summer. He believes that the existing polls exaggerate Vice President Harris's support and has decided to put this view into practice by betting over $30 million on Trump's victory.
As the results of the election were announced, Théo was excited. He predicted that Trump would receive 49 or 50 percent of the nation's vote and win six of the seven battleground states. As of Wednesday afternoon, after Election Day, analysts predicted that Trump did indeed win the popular vote, receiving nearly 72 million votes, while Harris received 67.1 million. The betting market also believes that Trump's victory in the popular vote is almost a foregone conclusion.
Théo has repeatedly criticized American opinion polls, especially those conducted by mainstream media. He believes that these polls often lean towards the Democratic Party, producing anomalous results that favor Harris. He pointed out that French polls place more emphasis on credibility, reflecting cultural differences.
To support his point, Théo shared data analysis based on the average of RealClearPolitics polls. Considering that the polling results in the swing states for 2024 are very close, he inferred that if Trump can perform as well as he did in 2020, he would easily take the lead.
Théo believes that the polls fail to adequately consider the "shy Trump voter effect." He suggests that polling organizations should adopt a "neighbor polling" method, which means asking respondents which candidate they think their neighbors would support. He believes this method can indirectly reveal people's true preferences.
Théo also revealed that he had commissioned a large polling agency to conduct a survey to measure the neighbor effect, but he refused to disclose specific details. He insisted that if American polling agencies adopt this method in the future, they will be able to avoid similar predictive errors.
Overall, Théo's successful predictions highlight the possible limitations of traditional polling methods and the importance of considering potential biases when analysing voter behavior.
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BlockchainFoodie
· 8h ago
looks like someone's cooking up profits in the prediction markets... like a perfectly aged blockchain wine tbh
Reply0
DegenApeSurfer
· 8h ago
bull awesome this round all in won so much
Reply0
SmartContractPlumber
· 8h ago
Multi-account operations with permissions help mitigate risks.
Reply0
StableGeniusDegen
· 8h ago
Data God belongs to
Reply0
CountdownToBroke
· 8h ago
I'm at a loss. When can I turn things around?
Reply0
Web3Educator
· 8h ago
bruh... this theo guy's living in 5024 while we're still learning basic market signals fr fr
Mysterious trader accurately predicts the U.S. election, winning $50 million in huge profits.
Mysterious Trader Predicts Election Outcome and Earns Huge Profits
A mysterious trader made a profit of almost $50 million in the prediction market related to the US presidential election. The trader, known as the "Trump Whale," was betting not only that Trump would win the presidential election, but also that he would win the popular vote, a view that was considered unlikely by many political observers at the time.
The trader who goes by "Théo" has also bet that Trump will win key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He placed his bets through four anonymous accounts on a cryptocurrency prediction platform. Although he refuses to reveal his true identity, he has kept in touch with the media to share his analysis and predictions.
Théo claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks. He began using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polling data this summer. He believes that the existing polls exaggerate Vice President Harris's support and has decided to put this view into practice by betting over $30 million on Trump's victory.
As the results of the election were announced, Théo was excited. He predicted that Trump would receive 49 or 50 percent of the nation's vote and win six of the seven battleground states. As of Wednesday afternoon, after Election Day, analysts predicted that Trump did indeed win the popular vote, receiving nearly 72 million votes, while Harris received 67.1 million. The betting market also believes that Trump's victory in the popular vote is almost a foregone conclusion.
Théo has repeatedly criticized American opinion polls, especially those conducted by mainstream media. He believes that these polls often lean towards the Democratic Party, producing anomalous results that favor Harris. He pointed out that French polls place more emphasis on credibility, reflecting cultural differences.
To support his point, Théo shared data analysis based on the average of RealClearPolitics polls. Considering that the polling results in the swing states for 2024 are very close, he inferred that if Trump can perform as well as he did in 2020, he would easily take the lead.
Théo believes that the polls fail to adequately consider the "shy Trump voter effect." He suggests that polling organizations should adopt a "neighbor polling" method, which means asking respondents which candidate they think their neighbors would support. He believes this method can indirectly reveal people's true preferences.
Théo also revealed that he had commissioned a large polling agency to conduct a survey to measure the neighbor effect, but he refused to disclose specific details. He insisted that if American polling agencies adopt this method in the future, they will be able to avoid similar predictive errors.
Overall, Théo's successful predictions highlight the possible limitations of traditional polling methods and the importance of considering potential biases when analysing voter behavior.