Crypto Market Outlook for 2025: Four Scenarios and Eleven Predictions
Since 2024, the crypto market has experienced a significant upward cycle. From the launch of an exchange product in early January to Bitcoin's all-time high, it then drove altcoins to rise and enter the volatile second and third quarters of 2024. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $90,000 after breaking through the $50,000 and $60,000 mark.
It is worth noting that the altcoin market often begins when Bitcoin reaches a peak. The first round is Bitcoin's attempt to surge to $69,000 but fails to break through, and the next round is moving towards $100,000.
It is expected that the next round of altcoin rally may occur after Bitcoin has stabilized at $100,000, possibly in the first quarter of 2025. But it is also possible that the situation in the second and third quarters of 2024 will be repeated in the coming months. Here are a few possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins generally rise. It will continue to rise throughout 2025 and enter a new round of altcoin market. Bitcoin continues to rise, with all tokens performing well, repeating the trend of the past two months. (30-40% probability )
Strategy: Choose high-performing altcoins to buy on dips.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, a handful of altcoins rise. Similar to 2024, volatility will increase in the coming months, but the overall bias is optimistic. (50-60% probability )
Strategy: Select individual altcoins to buy on dips, avoid popular tracks, and look for the next potential coin.
Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall. (20-30% probability )
Strategy: Reduce or liquidate altcoins, consider selling all of those that have not risen for a long time.
Scenario 4: Bitcoin and altcoins are generally down and the market has peaked. (10-20% probability )
Due to the favorable macro environment, a new Bitcoin all-time high breakout may not be as time-consuming as it will be in 2024. Last summer, institutional investors were still struggling to market Bitcoin to their customers, and the market did not recognize its importance.
Now that the policy environment has changed, discussions about Bitcoin's strategic reserve are ongoing. While it is unlikely that a reserve will actually be built, Bitcoin's public image has improved.
What matters is the change in market expectations. The new administration has brought new attention to the digital asset space, and the frequent talk of bitcoin at the top has made it easier to convince ordinary investors to buy bitcoin.
This regime change is extremely important. As a result, Bitcoin is expected to maintain its upward momentum in 2025. The situation is similar for altcoins, but with a slight difference.
The total altcoin market cap hit its highest level since 2021 in the first quarter of 2024 before reaching a cycle high in the fourth quarter. It follows roughly the same pattern ( and there is not much difference between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 above ).
The key is to grasp the market positioning and timing. While bullish on 2025, it's uncertain how long it will take. The rally in 2025 may be earlier than in 2024, but altcoins could still fall sharply in a period of lack of catalysts.
As long as the cycle is not over, both Bitcoin and altcoins should remain optimistic. A repeat of the 2024 summer is unlikely in 2025, and while there may be a plateau similar to the current one, prices will remain at good levels.
On-chain is different, and it's easy to see a 70% drop during a market downturn. It is not expected that the altcoin has peaked at this time, as it is difficult to imagine that Bitcoin will continue to rise when the altcoin "crashes", and there is no sign that Bitcoin will peak here.
Conclusion:
• Bitcoin will continue to rise, possibly more than in 2024
• Altcoins are bullish overall, and although there will be a pullback, it may be less powerful than in 2024
It is still far from the top of the cycle, but it needs to be continuously evaluated. The top of the cycle is not necessarily a specific event, but more like a gradual approaching range.
Bitcoin Reserve Program Risk
After the new president takes office, the market will pay close attention to his words and actions. While Bitcoin's outlook is positive, it would be a rather pessimistic signal if the reserve plan were completely ignored. More likely, the reserve plan has not been implemented or has been delayed by some factors.
In the latter case: as long as it is positive for Bitcoin, it may be bearish in the short term, but it remains bullish in the long term.
In short: bullish signal = cycle continuation. Bearish signal = need to adjust the strategy. The cycle may continue, but the chances are smaller.
Supply Risk
The summer of 2024 has experienced violent macro volatility, and the stock market has repeatedly reached new highs. However, the market failed to benefit from multiple sell-offs by some large coin holders.
Supply risks are ever-present. There are always people who hold a large amount of Bitcoin, such as certain governments, law enforcement agencies, etc. This needs to be watched closely, but if all goes well, these events tend to be good bargain buying opportunities.
Macro Risk
A limited rate cut is expected. Although not so optimistic, as long as interest rates continue to fall, liquidity will improve. Again, a bullish signal = cycle continuation. Barring a rate hike/no rate cut, the macro environment should be favorable for digital assets.
The bearish signal is that inflation is on the rise again, and central banks may have to raise interest rates to curb inflation.
Token referrals
1. AI
It has gone through several waves. The next wave is expected to arrive soon. Simple buying and holding may not work well. Some early-stage tokens have fallen 60% from their highs and are likely to continue to underperform.
ALCH( game development ), Griffain( wallet management assistant ), Digimon, Ai16z, etc., are all worth paying attention to.
2. Decentralized Finance
DeFi will continue to be an important track, but it is difficult to invest because there are not many tokens that benefit, and even if they do, they may have limited gains.
In terms of risk-reward, DeFi is not the first choice.
Preferred: Tokens of certain mainstream DeFi platforms
Alternative: Stablecoins/Payment-related tokens
3. L1 Public Chain
L1 public chains may make a comeback. An emerging public chain performed well. L1 is one of the areas that the market has long overlooked, and there is a huge opportunity.
Preferred: Two emerging public chains
Secondary selection: a public chain of an abstract account
4. NFT Tokens and Game Tokens
The NFT token space is worth paying attention to. The token of a well-known NFT project is slowly recovering, and other projects are also launching tokens. NFTs as a whole are not expected to revivenation, but their tokens may return. In addition, it is interesting to look for interesting game projects with upcoming tokens.
Preferred: Tokens of certain well-known NFT projects/game tokens
Secondary: Other potential NFT/game projects ( ) if tokens are issued
5. Other Tracks
• Data Token: Kaito / Arkm
• Meme:PEPE
• Decentralized Internet of Things: PEAQ/HNT
• Bitcoin Ordinal Protocol
• Traditional DeFi: CRV/CVX
11 projections for 2025
A large company will implement decentralized IoT in some way, possibly through an acquisition.
A trading platform will lose its position as the largest exchange. Mainly from other centralized exchanges, not decentralized exchanges.
With the advancement of VR technology, metaverse tokens will get a new lease of life.
The ICO model will rise again.
There will not be a large-scale altcoin market on the Ethereum chain.
The price of an emerging public chain token will reach double digits ( minimum ) of $10.
Ethereum ETF staking was approved, giving rise to more yield products that stake other tokens, as well as yield aggregators.
A well-known artist will use NFTs and tokens to maintain fan relationships and provide rewards.
The price of Bitcoin will reach $200,000.
More CEOs/founders of L1 public chains will follow the example of the CEO of a public chain and leave the company.
A Layer 2 project loses the competition with the L1 public chain, and another L1 takes its place. An old public chain will maintain its advantage.
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
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BearMarketBuyer
· 11h ago
BTC is right in front of you.
Reply0
InscriptionGriller
· 11h ago
A single round of playing people for suckers can reveal who is just pretending and who is serious.
Reply0
SerLiquidated
· 11h ago
It's all just casual talk, who knows what's true or false.
Reply0
OldLeekNewSickle
· 11h ago
play people for suckers and enter a position, waiting to catch a falling knife at the top!
Four major scenarios and 11 bold predictions for the crypto market in 2025
Crypto Market Outlook for 2025: Four Scenarios and Eleven Predictions
Since 2024, the crypto market has experienced a significant upward cycle. From the launch of an exchange product in early January to Bitcoin's all-time high, it then drove altcoins to rise and enter the volatile second and third quarters of 2024. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $90,000 after breaking through the $50,000 and $60,000 mark.
It is worth noting that the altcoin market often begins when Bitcoin reaches a peak. The first round is Bitcoin's attempt to surge to $69,000 but fails to break through, and the next round is moving towards $100,000.
It is expected that the next round of altcoin rally may occur after Bitcoin has stabilized at $100,000, possibly in the first quarter of 2025. But it is also possible that the situation in the second and third quarters of 2024 will be repeated in the coming months. Here are a few possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins generally rise. It will continue to rise throughout 2025 and enter a new round of altcoin market. Bitcoin continues to rise, with all tokens performing well, repeating the trend of the past two months. (30-40% probability )
Strategy: Choose high-performing altcoins to buy on dips.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, a handful of altcoins rise. Similar to 2024, volatility will increase in the coming months, but the overall bias is optimistic. (50-60% probability )
Strategy: Select individual altcoins to buy on dips, avoid popular tracks, and look for the next potential coin.
Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall. (20-30% probability )
Strategy: Reduce or liquidate altcoins, consider selling all of those that have not risen for a long time.
Scenario 4: Bitcoin and altcoins are generally down and the market has peaked. (10-20% probability )
Due to the favorable macro environment, a new Bitcoin all-time high breakout may not be as time-consuming as it will be in 2024. Last summer, institutional investors were still struggling to market Bitcoin to their customers, and the market did not recognize its importance.
Now that the policy environment has changed, discussions about Bitcoin's strategic reserve are ongoing. While it is unlikely that a reserve will actually be built, Bitcoin's public image has improved.
What matters is the change in market expectations. The new administration has brought new attention to the digital asset space, and the frequent talk of bitcoin at the top has made it easier to convince ordinary investors to buy bitcoin.
This regime change is extremely important. As a result, Bitcoin is expected to maintain its upward momentum in 2025. The situation is similar for altcoins, but with a slight difference.
The total altcoin market cap hit its highest level since 2021 in the first quarter of 2024 before reaching a cycle high in the fourth quarter. It follows roughly the same pattern ( and there is not much difference between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 above ).
The key is to grasp the market positioning and timing. While bullish on 2025, it's uncertain how long it will take. The rally in 2025 may be earlier than in 2024, but altcoins could still fall sharply in a period of lack of catalysts.
As long as the cycle is not over, both Bitcoin and altcoins should remain optimistic. A repeat of the 2024 summer is unlikely in 2025, and while there may be a plateau similar to the current one, prices will remain at good levels.
On-chain is different, and it's easy to see a 70% drop during a market downturn. It is not expected that the altcoin has peaked at this time, as it is difficult to imagine that Bitcoin will continue to rise when the altcoin "crashes", and there is no sign that Bitcoin will peak here.
Conclusion: • Bitcoin will continue to rise, possibly more than in 2024 • Altcoins are bullish overall, and although there will be a pullback, it may be less powerful than in 2024
! Year-end Series: 4 Scenarios and 11 Predictions for 2025
Potential Risks
Cycle Top
It is still far from the top of the cycle, but it needs to be continuously evaluated. The top of the cycle is not necessarily a specific event, but more like a gradual approaching range.
Bitcoin Reserve Program Risk
After the new president takes office, the market will pay close attention to his words and actions. While Bitcoin's outlook is positive, it would be a rather pessimistic signal if the reserve plan were completely ignored. More likely, the reserve plan has not been implemented or has been delayed by some factors.
In the latter case: as long as it is positive for Bitcoin, it may be bearish in the short term, but it remains bullish in the long term.
In short: bullish signal = cycle continuation. Bearish signal = need to adjust the strategy. The cycle may continue, but the chances are smaller.
Supply Risk
The summer of 2024 has experienced violent macro volatility, and the stock market has repeatedly reached new highs. However, the market failed to benefit from multiple sell-offs by some large coin holders.
Supply risks are ever-present. There are always people who hold a large amount of Bitcoin, such as certain governments, law enforcement agencies, etc. This needs to be watched closely, but if all goes well, these events tend to be good bargain buying opportunities.
Macro Risk
A limited rate cut is expected. Although not so optimistic, as long as interest rates continue to fall, liquidity will improve. Again, a bullish signal = cycle continuation. Barring a rate hike/no rate cut, the macro environment should be favorable for digital assets.
The bearish signal is that inflation is on the rise again, and central banks may have to raise interest rates to curb inflation.
Token referrals
1. AI
It has gone through several waves. The next wave is expected to arrive soon. Simple buying and holding may not work well. Some early-stage tokens have fallen 60% from their highs and are likely to continue to underperform.
Preferred: Application Technology / Collective Intelligence / Gaming / Consumer-facing AI
ALCH( game development ), Griffain( wallet management assistant ), Digimon, Ai16z, etc., are all worth paying attention to.
2. Decentralized Finance
DeFi will continue to be an important track, but it is difficult to invest because there are not many tokens that benefit, and even if they do, they may have limited gains.
In terms of risk-reward, DeFi is not the first choice.
Preferred: Tokens of certain mainstream DeFi platforms
Alternative: Stablecoins/Payment-related tokens
3. L1 Public Chain
L1 public chains may make a comeback. An emerging public chain performed well. L1 is one of the areas that the market has long overlooked, and there is a huge opportunity.
Preferred: Two emerging public chains
Secondary selection: a public chain of an abstract account
4. NFT Tokens and Game Tokens
The NFT token space is worth paying attention to. The token of a well-known NFT project is slowly recovering, and other projects are also launching tokens. NFTs as a whole are not expected to revivenation, but their tokens may return. In addition, it is interesting to look for interesting game projects with upcoming tokens.
Preferred: Tokens of certain well-known NFT projects/game tokens
Secondary: Other potential NFT/game projects ( ) if tokens are issued
5. Other Tracks
• Data Token: Kaito / Arkm • Meme:PEPE • Decentralized Internet of Things: PEAQ/HNT • Bitcoin Ordinal Protocol • Traditional DeFi: CRV/CVX
11 projections for 2025
A large company will implement decentralized IoT in some way, possibly through an acquisition.
A trading platform will lose its position as the largest exchange. Mainly from other centralized exchanges, not decentralized exchanges.
With the advancement of VR technology, metaverse tokens will get a new lease of life.
The ICO model will rise again.
There will not be a large-scale altcoin market on the Ethereum chain.
The price of an emerging public chain token will reach double digits ( minimum ) of $10.
Ethereum ETF staking was approved, giving rise to more yield products that stake other tokens, as well as yield aggregators.
A well-known artist will use NFTs and tokens to maintain fan relationships and provide rewards.
The price of Bitcoin will reach $200,000.
More CEOs/founders of L1 public chains will follow the example of the CEO of a public chain and leave the company.
A Layer 2 project loses the competition with the L1 public chain, and another L1 takes its place. An old public chain will maintain its advantage.
! Year-end Series: 4 Scenarios and 11 Predictions for 2025