Bernstein gives Circle (CRCL) an "Outperform" rating with a target price set at $230.

On June 30, The Block reported that analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein have initiated coverage on stablecoin issuer Circle, giving it a "outperform" rating with a target price set at $230. "Circle is building a market-leading digital dollar stablecoin network, with regulatory advantages, first-mover liquidity position, and top channel partnerships," the team led by analyst Gautam Chhugani noted in a client report on Monday. "We believe CRCL is a must-have asset for investors looking to position themselves in the internet-level financial infrastructure of the next decade." Analysts predict that stablecoins will upgrade from the payment rails of the crypto market to the payment infrastructure of the entire internet, with total supply expected to rise 16 times from the current $244 billion to $4 trillion within a decade. This growth will stem from "transformational developments" in the crypto and tokenization capital markets, payment systems, and stablecoin-native financial services. Chhugani emphasized that with the recent passage of the GENIUS Act by the U.S. Senate, USDC will become the largest regulated stablecoin under this legislation, and this "regulatory first-mover advantage" will make it the preferred partner for internet platforms (not limited to trading platforms). Its $61.4 billion liquidity reserve is difficult for new entrants lacking crypto channel flywheels to replicate, with most competitors struggling with the "cold start" problem. However, Bernstein predicts that Circle will only capture a 30% share of this $4 trillion potential market—an increase of just 5 percentage points from the current 25% market share. Currently, Tether (USDT) maintains a dominant position with a supply of $158.5 billion, accounting for 65% of the market share. As a foreign issuer, Tether may need to establish a U.S. subsidiary to comply with new regulatory requirements. Chhugani pointed out that Circle's stock price currently corresponds to 56 times the adjusted EBITDA for 2026 and 28 times for 2027, reflecting strong demand from investors for pure stablecoin assets. Bernstein values it at $230 using a ten-year discounted cash flow model, corresponding to about 35 times the adjusted EBITDA for 2027. The firm expects the company’s revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 47% from 2024 to 2027, with EBITDA growth of 71%, and the proliferation of USDC will offset revenue pressures caused by interest rate factors—advising to seize buying opportunities during market pullbacks.