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QCP: The Israel-Hamas conflict and macro risks have impacted global sentiment, but Bitcoin remains relatively resilient.
Gate News bot news, QCP discussed the Israel and Iran conflict in its latest market analysis, stating that market and macro risks have hurt global sentiment.
The Asian market woke up to the dual impact of geopolitical escalation and digital disruption. Reports indicate that Israel conducted a preemptive airstrike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, resulting in the death of Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Salami, which affected risk assets and sent shockwaves through the global market. As Iran vows to retaliate and Washington attempts to distance itself, safe-haven funds dominate, driving a significant rise in oil and gold prices.
The S&P 500 index futures have fallen below the important psychological level of 6000 points, and cryptocurrencies have been caught up in it as well. Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped about 3%, while Ethereum (ETH) has seen a larger decline of around 9%. Volatility has surged, especially at the front end, as traders seek gamma exposure ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision announcement next week.
The risk reversal has decisively occurred, with the volatility of BTC's front-end put options now exceeding that of equivalent call options by 5 times. This clearly indicates an increase in demand for downward protection. Meanwhile, driven by concerns over the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, WTI crude oil prices surged by 11% at one point during the session. Given Iran's central role in global oil production, any escalation could potentially choke off key oil supply channels. This has intensified inflation concerns and tested the Federal Reserve's resolve on interest rates.
The tense situation has now risen to its lowest level since April. The market is in a dilemma, either preparing for further escalation or suddenly turning to diplomatic channels to ease the situation.
The intensification of macro pressures is due to a severe internet outage in the US stock market, which has once again raised structural concerns. Cloudflare's infrastructure experienced widespread outages, while Google's cloud disruption caused Spotify, Snap, Discord, and even Google's own services to become inoperable. The vulnerability of centralized network infrastructure has dealt a heavy blow to tech stocks and exacerbated the decline at closing.
The decline in the stock market coincided with a significant increase in open contracts for major crypto assets, triggering over $1 billion in long liquidations. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient, highlighting continued institutional demand.
DeFi Development Corp announced a $5 billion equity financing to accumulate SOL as reserves, indicating the company's continued confidence in the cryptocurrency market. This is still a vote of confidence for mainstream coins, even in the context of widespread deleveraging.
Looking to the future, all eyes are now focused on the conflict between Iran and Israel. The digital asset market remains closely linked to geopolitical tail risks, and sudden news could emerge at any moment. The balance between escalating conflict and diplomatic adjustments will determine the short-term direction, not only for cryptocurrencies but also for the broader macroeconomic landscape.