Bitcoin Price Prediction: Arthur Hayes Warns of a Short-term Pullback to 90,000 for BTC, but Bank Stablecoins Will Ignite a Long-term Bull Run

Arthur Hayes' latest view points out that the price movement of Bitcoin may experience a brief pullback, with a target level potentially reaching 90,000 USD, after which it will be driven by the issuance of fiat stablecoins by American banks to set new historical highs.

🏦 Bank stablecoins: New quantitative easing?

In the latest blog post, Hayes depicts a scenario where central bank policies and Wall Street interests jointly drive trillions of dollars into the crypto asset market. His core argument is that the market has not yet fully priced in the disruptive impact of fully compliant dollar stablecoins issued by "too big to fail banks" like JPMorgan.

These bank stablecoins will not only challenge existing stablecoin leaders such as Tether (USDT) or Circle (USDC), but will also become a key tool for absorbing the large amounts of bank reserves and retail deposits currently idle in low-yield bank accounts.

💥 Short-term Volatility Warning vs. Long-term Liquidity Flood

Hayes believes that the launch of such stablecoins is essentially a new type of liquidity injection, comparable to Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing (QE), but without requiring formal action from the Fed. By allowing banks to seamlessly invest retail funds into short-term U.S. Treasuries (bypassing capital constraints), these tokens will unlock massive new funds for Bitcoin, tech stocks, and other risk assets.

However, before the crypto market bull run resumes, he anticipates a period of market volatility. Based on historical cycles and market sentiment analysis, Hayes predicts that Bitcoin may drop to the $90,000 range due to speculators taking profits and traders waiting for more clear Federal Reserve policy signals.

🏛️ GENIUS bill empowerment, banks gain strategic advantage

This prediction is released at a significant breakthrough in U.S. stablecoin regulation: last month, the U.S. Senate overwhelmingly passed the bipartisan GENIUS Act with a vote of 68-30, marking the most comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation to date and the first major advancement in the stablecoin regulatory framework.

Hayes pointed out that this regulatory direction gives traditional banks a strategic advantage: they not only have a large retail network and ready-made compliance framework, but also possess channels that provide direct access to the Federal Reserve. This allows them to more easily convert deposits into short-term Treasury bonds and profit by issuing stablecoins.

📈 Huge Liquidity Potential: Buying Opportunity Emerges

He estimates that if banks convert some of their $17 trillion in deposits into stablecoin products, it could create up to $6.8 trillion in new demand for U.S. government debt. In addition to potential changes in the way Federal Reserve reserve rates are paid, this shift could inject a massive amount of new liquidity into the market, driving up the prices of crypto assets and stocks.

Therefore, Hayes views the upcoming Bitcoin price pullback as a buying opportunity. He firmly believes that once the fiat-backed stablecoins issued by large banks enter the market, the released massive liquidity will be enough to drive Bitcoin and other crypto risk assets to soar significantly. In his opinion, the emergence of these tokens will mark the beginning of a new phase in the cryptocurrency market cycle.