Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC fluctuates within the short-term holder cost range, with a key resistance level of $117,000.

On-chain data analysis company Glassnode's latest report indicates that the Bitcoin price has recently been fluctuating within a narrow range defined by the cost basis of short-term holders (STH), with the key upper resistance level currently located around $117,000.

📊 Definition of short-term holder cost range for current price fluctuation band

• Glassnode released an analysis on platform X, focusing on Bitcoin's recent on-chain price channel.
• This channel is built on two key cost indicators of short-term holders (STH) (i.e., investors holding Bitcoin for ≤155 days).
• The core indicator is Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH Realized Price), which represents the average cost basis for this group when purchasing Bitcoin.
• On-chain Data Interpretation: When the spot price of Bitcoin is above this cost line, it indicates that the STH overall is in an unrealized profit state; conversely, it indicates that the STH overall is in an unrealized loss state.

📈 ±1 standard deviation constitutes key support and resistance

• The charts provided by Glassnode show that over the past six months, the Bitcoin price has mainly fluctuated between -1 standard deviation (-1 SD) and +1 standard deviation (+1 SD) of the STH realized price.
  • -1 SD forms support at the lower edge of the fluctuation range
  • +1 SD forms the upper resistance level of the oscillation range
• Since short-term holders are mainly composed of new market entrants and traders with high emotional fluctuations, they are sensitive to market changes and can easily trigger panic selling or FOMO buying.
• Therefore, although the implemented price of STH is not an absolutely rigid technical support resistance level, the Bitcoin price is still significantly influenced by its ±1 standard deviation range in the short term.

🔭 Current Price Position and Key Resistance Outlook

• The latest on-chain data shows that after the Bitcoin price found support near the realized price (cost basis) last month, it is currently trading above that average line.
• The next important test facing the current Bitcoin trend is the +1 standard deviation resistance line (approximately 117,000 USD).
• Glassnode emphasizes: "+1 SD level can be seen as the upper resistance band for short-term price fluctuation." In the current sideways consolidation phase, the Bitcoin price has only successfully tested this resistance level once.
• The market is closely watching whether Bitcoin can break through the key resistance level of $117,000 in the near future, which could serve as an important on-chain signal to confirm a new round of upward trend or to continue the range fluctuation.

💰 Current Bitcoin Price

• According to the latest market data from Gate, Bitcoin has risen by more than 3% in the past 24 hours, with the current price at $109,500, gradually approaching the above key on-chain resistance area. Investors need to closely monitor the breakthrough situation at the $117,000 level, which could become the key on-chain confirmation point for the upcoming bull market launch.