Standard Chartered: Driven by ETF and policy momentum, the new cycle of Bitcoin (BTC) may surpass previous models.

Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that due to the record-breaking inflows into ETFs, the policy risks from The Federal Reserve (FED) (Fed), and the increasing adoption in various countries, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to achieve its strongest half-year performance in history by the end of 2025.

In a research report on July 2, Kendrick predicted that ETF inflows and corporate fund purchases would exceed 245,000 BTC in the second, third, and fourth quarters.

The bank maintains its previous prediction that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of this year, while updating its outlook for Bitcoin in the third quarter, forecasting a price of $135,000.

He also emphasized that the inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has far exceeded expectations, and the market is beginning to realize that despite previous concerns, the price pattern after the halving remains intact.

Policy Benefits and Increased Purchases in Various Countries

Kendrick also pointed out that in addition to the increase in purchase volume, the market is also facing an increased risk to the independence of The Federal Reserve (FED), as President Donald Trump may soon replace Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and potentially shift to a more accommodative monetary policy.

Kendrick stated: "The liquidity of ETFs and corporate funds is closely related to U.S. policy."

In addition, the U.S. Senate recently approved the GENIUS Act, which further enhances the prospects of Bitcoin. Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that the legislation will increase regulatory transparency and promote the wider adoption of cryptocurrencies and their integration into the traditional financial system.

Kendrick also predicts that the adoption of Bitcoin by various countries will expand, and any evidence of purchases at the national level will support long-term demand and price stability, similar to the effects demonstrated by the accumulation of corporate funds in recent months.

The Theory of Halving Period End

The report also addresses market concerns about the Bitcoin halving cycle, which occurs every four years, where mining rewards are cut in half and affects historical price patterns.

Kendrick explained that in past cycles, the price of Bitcoin typically drops about 18 months after a halving, which means that based on the halving event in April 2024, a price drop may occur around September or October of this year.

However, Standard Chartered believes that market dynamics have changed. Kendrick believes that due to strong ETF inflows and corporate fund purchases (factors that have never appeared in previous cycles), Bitcoin may avoid the usual post-halving crash.

He stated that due to market attention on this historical pattern, prices may experience some fluctuations at the end of September and the beginning of October, but he expects that because of these new demand factors, the upward trend will continue until the end of the year.

Kendrick concluded that the coming months will show how Bitcoin overcomes previous halving cycle behavior and succinctly summarized his views.