Bitcoin price stabilizes at $108,000, why has the volume dried up? A deep analysis of the signals behind it.

Core Tip: Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $108,000, attempting to break through the $110,000 key resistance level. Although it has consistently held above the $100,000 mark, there are divergent views in the market regarding future price movement. A key concern has emerged: alongside the price pump, key volume indicators are depleting.

📉 Volume Plummets: One-Year Low Alert

• On-chain data reveals contraction: Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin spot trading volume has plummeted to $5.02 billion, and futures trading volume has dropped to $31.2 billion. This is the lowest level in over a year.

• Peak Drop Trajectory: The volume peaks appear at the end of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, followed by a cliff-like drop starting from April.

• Warning of Volume-Price Divergence: Although BTC price continues to rise, this volume-price divergence phenomenon typically indicates a slowdown in momentum, which may stem from market anxiety and concerns about a trend reversal in the range above $100,000.

• Potential Causes and Risks: The decline in trading activity can be attributed to seasonal factors, lack of market confidence, or investors taking profits. When volume shrinks and prices rise, the likelihood of a price correction significantly increases.

• Key to Bull Market Continuation: In order for the price to rise more sustainably, bulls need stronger volume support to validate the reasonableness of the bull market continuation.

  

🆚 Retail Exhaustion vs. Whale Accumulation: Market Structure Shift

• Retail Demand Plummets: IT Tech reports on platform X that the 30-day demand for small wallets holding $0-10K BTC has dropped 10%, hitting a one-year low. This indicates a significant slowdown in retail fund inflows.

• Warning of Retail Absence: Traditionally, retail investors are most active at market turning points. Their absence may be a warning signal, indicating that there will be neither large-scale sell-offs nor excessive demand in the short term.

• Signs of whale accumulation in secret: Meanwhile, low retail activity suggests that funds may be flowing into large wallets (whales). This indicates that Bitcoin whales may be passively accumulating.

• Historical Reflection: The current situation is remarkably similar to the market conditions in mid-2023—at that time, retail demand similarly declined, and the market experienced a 10% correction, followed by a larger breakthrough.

• Key Market Direction: The battle between retail fatigue and whale hunger will largely determine the major direction choice for Bitcoin's price movement next.

  

🔐 LTH Accumulation & OTC Supply Squeeze: Bullish Fundamentals Support

• Long-term holders ( LTH ) firmly hold coins: Bitcoin MVRV ratio is currently at 2.26, a level that typically indicates a long-term holder accumulation phase. Historical data shows that this ratio area often signals the start of a large-scale pump.
• Top Warning Threshold: It is worth noting that during the previous bull market peaks, when the MVRV ratio breaks 2.5, it often signifies the formation of the cycle top (for example, end of 2021).
• Current stage analogy: As of the time of writing, the current MVRV model is more similar to the initial stage of the bull market that started in early 2023. This indicates that the Bitcoin price still has significant upward potential.
• Price support conditions: As long as the MVRV ratio holds above the trend line, it is expected to continue providing support for BTC price.
• OTC Supply Tightening: The balance of over-the-counter ( OTC ) platforms is synchronously declining, indicating that a potential Bitcoin supply squeeze is occurring. Scarcity is intensifying. Historically, a sharp reduction in supply, when accompanied by a demand rebound, typically ignites a strong pump in the market.
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📌 Summary: In-depth analysis of key indicators

The current Bitcoin price movement shows resilience above $100,000, but volume exhaustion and retail exit pose short-term concerns. On-chain data reveals positive signals of whale accumulation and long-term holder accumulation, while the MVRV ratio also suggests that upward potential still exists. The market is at a critical juncture, and reduced OTC supply may trigger a supply shortage-driven rebound in the future. Investors need to closely monitor volume changes and the divergence in whale/retail behavior to determine if the BTC bull market is sustainable.