Pi Network: "The Sleeping Giant" or a Looming Fire Sale?

PI has remained almost unchanged for many days, at around $0.456 despite the Pi Network community hyping it up. While public sentiment remains optimistic, technical data and on-chain data paint a darker picture. With trading reserves increasing and short positions accumulating, this setup suggests hidden selling, not strength. The Psychology of Pi Network Still Holds Hope, But the Reset Says Otherwise The public sentiment around Pi Network remains surprisingly strong, despite the increasing pressure on the charts. Some community analysts still refer to PI as the "sleeping giant," believing that its true value is still hidden. Cryptocurrency analyst @Dr_Picoin noted this week that Pi Network has been "forgotten by many" but is not worthless; it is just misunderstood.

Meanwhile, trader @CRYPTOAD00 warns that selling Pi at around 0.45 dollars could be a mistake, predicting a target price of 5 dollars in the next altcoin season.

But while the belief remains, the actual trading setup tells a different story. A story full of caution signals and increasing selling pressure. Whale Activity Spikes as Foreign Reserves Soar One of the clearest warning signs is a sudden spike in Pi coin exchange reserves. In the past two months, reserves have increased by over 40%. This indicates that large holders are transferring funds to centralized exchanges, likely preparing to sell.

The inflow of funds has outpaced the outflow on most CEXs, indicating that the price of PI is under cost pressure. When whales flood into exchanges, there is rarely a good outcome for the buying side. The Financing Interest Rate Remains Negative, Retail Still Short Selling Pi coin continues to witness a deep negative funding rate on perpetual futures. This means that short sellers are dominating and paying to hold their positions. This imbalance is a typical sign of the crowd's pessimistic sentiment. Even after a slight recovery to $0.48, retail has not reversed.

The funding rate reflects the cost of long-term futures contracts compared to short-term ones. A negative rate means that most traders expect prices to decrease further. If this congestion persists, any sudden upward movement could trigger short selling. However, currently, short selling is still in control. Elder Ray Index Support Bears The Elder Ray index shows weak but balanced strength. Bull Power remains below 0 — buyers are not leading. However, the strength of the bears is gradually forming. This tells us that although selling is not aggressive, buyers have not yet returned strongly. The chart looks frozen. Neither side has complete control, but the bears may have pushed the bulls out.

Elder Ray is a momentum indicator that shows who is in control. In the case of PI, no one is in control. Currently, the price of PI is trading near $0.456. The main support area is $0.4035; if this area is broken, the downward trend will quickly open up. On the upside, the resistance levels are $0.4588 and $0.5023. If the buyers surpass these levels, the path will open towards $0.60.

But unless these levels are removed by volume, Pi is still stuck in a sideways trap. Additionally, if $0.4035 is broken, the bullish trend may be invalidated. You can expect this to happen if exchange reserves continue to rise. There is a potential lifeline: a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI. While the price of PI is making lower lows near $0.408, the RSI is making higher lows. This is a classic divergence setup. This means that the price of PI is declining, but the momentum is recovering. Typically, this signals that the downward pressure is weakening. The RSI tracks momentum on a scale from 0 to 100. An increasing RSI while the price is declining may indicate a reversal.