Can Trump's hundred-day speech end the Bitcoin consolidation trend?

Author: Nancy Lubale, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance

Summary

• The market has been waiting for President Trump's hundred-day speech, while the price of Bitcoin is consolidating.
• Since April 22, over $4.7 billion worth of Bitcoin has been withdrawn from exchanges, leading to a decrease in supply and an increased sensitivity of price to demand.
• Trump's clarification of cryptocurrency policy could trigger a surge in Bitcoin prices, but tariff measures may limit the increase.
• Traders indicate that the price of Bitcoin must break above the key resistance level of $95,000 in order to continue rising to $100,000 or even higher.

On the eve of the Trump 100-day memorial rally, the BTC price oscillated narrowly between $91,700 and $95,850.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The Market Awaits Trump's First Hundred Days Speech

U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a speech today marking his first hundred days in office. Before Trump's speech, Bitcoin investors adopted a wait-and-see approach.

So far, cryptocurrency-related policies have remained prominent during Trump's second term, but the market is still waiting for specific regulatory updates on cryptocurrencies in his economic policies.

The clarity of the Trump administration's strategic Bitcoin reserve plan could drive the price of Bitcoin up to $100,000. However, renewed attention to tariffs or significant budget cuts may exert pressure on the broader market and limit Bitcoin's upside in the short term.

Previously, the cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket predicted that the likelihood of Trump mentioning "cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" in his hundred-day speech was 24%. Data from the platform shows that users have placed bets exceeding $1 million for this speech.

Polymarket predicts the odds of Trump's 100-day speech content. Source: Polymarket

Trump's remarks may trigger a short-term price surge as they have in the past. For example, Bitcoin recently rebounded from $74,400 to $94,000, partly because Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods "would be significantly reduced."

While Trump's speech may inspire optimism and drive prices higher, broader market dynamics, including tariffs and global trade tensions, may dampen the rally, as evidenced by the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Over $4.7 billion in Bitcoin leaves exchanges

In addition to Trump's factors, the decline in the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has also supported the bullish expectation of Bitcoin price rising to $100,000.

Since the easing of macroeconomic tensions has triggered a comprehensive market rebound, investors have withdrawn more than 50,500 Bitcoins (worth $4.7 billion) from exchanges.

The exchange's Bitcoin reserves. Source: CryptoQuant

The reduction in exchange supply has led to a decrease in the available BTC for sale, thereby increasing the price's sensitivity to demand, which may rise after Trump's speech.

When will the BTC price break through 100,000 dollars?

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, Bitcoin's price has been consolidating below $96,000 for the past seven days.

Renowned Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC stated in a post on X on April 29: "BTC is slowly compressing and has set a new low below the $96,000 resistance level."

As reported by Cointelegraph, the $95,000 level is a key resistance that bulls need to break through in order to ensure a price rebound.

AlphaBTC asserted: "The more times we attempt to break through $95,000, the greater the likelihood of a breakout." He also added that this squeeze is likely to push Bitcoin towards the coveted $100,000 level.

"I expect there will be a larger pullback, but it may only happen after breaking through $100,000."

BTC/USD 30-minute chart. Source: AlphaBTC

Another analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, made a similar observation, stating: "BTC price has been under pressure again in the past few days after falling back to the previous range."

Daan Crypto Trades believes that a key level to watch on the downside is the 200-day simple moving average in the range of $89,500 to $91,000 (SMA).

The analyst explained that the main resistance levels are the local high of 99,5000 USD and the "psychological barrier of 100,000 USD," adding: "In the medium term, these are levels worth paying attention to. For now, we just need to observe its short-term trends."

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades

According to reports, healthy market fundamentals may drive the price of Bitcoin to break $100,000, setting a new all-time high.

Meanwhile, Peter Chung, the research director of the quantitative trading firm Presto, reiterated his prediction that the price of Bitcoin will reach $210,000 by 2025.