What will make Dogecoin surge? Analyst reveals the main drivers

Technical analyst Kevin, known on X as @Kev_Capital_TA, highlights what he describes as "the low at exactly the level we have been eyeing for the past few months." In a post accompanied by a chart, the chartist pointed out the confluence between the macro Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2 percent - drawn from the all-time high in 2021 to last year's low - and a long-term descending resistance line that has acted as support since the deepest bear market period. The spot price hit $0.138 - the number position of that 0.382 retracement level - before recovering to the current zone of $0.18. The feasible path to reach $1 for Dogecoin Kevin argues that the high time frame momentum picture is starting to change. "The weekly RSI has hit the exact level where it found a low since returning to the depths of the bear market, but every time the price reaches there, we are at a higher price level," he wrote, noting that the relative strength index is creating higher lows even as the price gradually rises. At the same time, the one-week Stochastic RSI indicator has created a bullish crossover, while the two-week crossover is "pending", a structure in previous cycles that signals a multi-week bullish rally for memecoin.

From a risk-reward perspective, Kevin still believes that the asymmetry remains attractive. "As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the risk-reward ratio on DOGE is extraordinary because your downside is minimal and your upside is very large," he said, revealing that members of his Patreon community have made "significant entries at 0.15 cents and set their stop-loss orders at breakeven." In his view, the only missing component is the momentum from macroeconomic data: "Positive macroeconomic data is necessary to maintain the upward momentum and will accelerate this process." The chart shows a series of Fibonacci extension and retracement levels on the high, mapping potential resistance zones if the recovery turns into a trend reversal. The first and nearest is the 50 percent retracement level at $0.19039; it coincides with the lower boundary of the broken trend line, making it the next technical gatekeeper. On that, the 61.8 percent retracement level, at around $0.26216, marks the golden ratio threshold that often distinguishes corrective recovery phases from major bullish trends. A small cluster at the 65 percent level, visible on Kevin's chart at $0.28522, indicates an intermediate barrier before the price can attempt to attack the deeper 78.6 percent retracement level around $0.41339—a zone consistent with the distribution range of early 2022. If Dogecoin regains that zone, a 100 percent retracement close to $0.73839 will fully recover the previous decrease, while the faded purple band above $1 describes the extended zone that will officially signal price discovery. Important factors Kevin's framework is not limited to the DOGE pair. In a separate post, he set a short-term target for Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) at 65.45 percent, identifying this as the "macro FIB level .786". He expects that level to create resistance for the metric, creating a period in which "altcoins [have] the chance to catch a bid". For Dogecoin speculators, any stagnation in BTC's cryptocurrency market share could reroute liquidity in the direction of the meme asset complex just as the technical backdrop is shifting positively. Despite the recent recovery, Kevin emphasizes that Bitcoin as well as the broader basket of altcoins have not entered a parabolic phase equivalent to previous cycles. "There has never been a time when BTC or altcoins transitioned into a parabolic phase," he wrote, suggesting that the mild slope is due to "monetary policy and a lack of liquidity leading to less social risk." Analysts have noticed this dynamic change as "global liquidity begins to rise and monetary policy starts to loosen," although he warns that the timeline has been extended by what he calls "the mistakes of central banks and governments during and after the pandemic."

Currently, memecoins that started as a joke are still tied to macro conversations. A base at Fib 0.382 and a momentum reset create a technical springboard, but Kevin's thesis—and Dogecoin's path towards higher Fib targets of $0.26, $0.41, and beyond—ultimately depends on the broader cycle providing the liquidity that has been absent so far.