Bitcoin's four-year cycle has completely failed! Whales, ETFs, and the White House join forces to rewrite the rules of the game.

1. The traditional script is torn apart: Why is the Halving myth failing?

In the past, Bitcoin's "four-year Halving cycle" resembled a meticulously choreographed stage play—miner rewards halved, supply contracted, prices skyrocketed, retail investors rushed in, and ultimately, the bubble burst. However, the Halving in 2024 has turned into a "silent play": 125 days after the Halving, Bitcoin only rose by 31%, far less than the 200% frenzy of the same period in 2016.

Reason 1: Miners can't move anymore.

In the past, miners were the "main force of market selling pressure"; in 2017, they contributed 1% of the daily trading volume, but now it is only 0.17%. After the Halving, miners either upgrade their equipment to bear the costs, or simply give up — selling coins to survive? Not possible!

Reason 2: ETF giants devour supply

How big is Wall Street's appetite? The average daily net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs exceeds $300 million, with institutional holdings surpassing 30%. Financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity can swallow tens of thousands of bitcoins in one bite. The supply gap caused by Halving? It has long been filled with their cash!

2. New protagonists emerge: the White House, the Federal Reserve, and Middle Eastern tycoons rewrite the rules.

The stage of Bitcoin has long changed its leading role:

Trump administration "God assists"

Promoting digital asset reserves and allowing banks to serve cryptocurrency clients — a presidential executive order from the White House directly pulls Bitcoin from the "gray area" into the mainstream financial system. Under the policy dividends, traditional capital is rushing in; who still cares about Halving?

The power of the Federal Reserve's "remote control"

"Pausing interest rate cuts" by Powell led to a $430 million outflow from Bitcoin ETFs in a single week; with weak economic data, funds turned back in a rush. The current coin price is like a "puppet on strings" of the Federal Reserve's policy, with macro volatility > technical aspects.

Middle Eastern tycoons quietly stock up

Abu Dhabi's sovereign fund Mubadala has quietly become the seventh largest shareholder in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, while the Norwegian pension fund has indirectly bet through MicroStrategy stocks. These "oil tycoons" are investing hundreds of millions of dollars, completely changing the market's power dynamics!

3. Dark War $93,200: A Bloody Game in a Long and Short Meat Grinder

On the surface, Bitcoin appears to be "lying flat" around $93,000, but in reality, there are turbulent undercurrents.

Hot money surged by 92%, retail investors became "cannon fodder"

In late April, short-term funds surged from 20.7 billion to 39.1 billion USD within a week, as these "fast guns" only chase rises and kill falls. On-chain data shows that $93,000 has become a concentration zone for chips—new funds are taking over at high positions while old players are shedding their holdings in tears, and the market is undergoing a "blood transfusion."

The bears are in full force.

$85,000 has accumulated a large number of short positions, and these leveraged players are suffering heavy losses. Once the price of the coin breaks through $95,000, short covering will turn into rocket fuel, violently pushing the price up!

Is the whale secretly "unloading"?

On-chain indicators show that large holders, or whales, have begun to quietly close their positions. But don't panic! The 200-day moving average has risen to $89,700, and ETF funds are still flowing in. Bitcoin is like it's wearing a bulletproof vest—will it drop? There are plenty of institutions ready to buy the dip.

4. Future Script: FOMO arrives late but strong, is $100,000 just the starting point?

Retail investors are still not awake!

Google search volume remains unchanged, yet 94% of addresses are profitable with no one discussing it—this indicates that the real FOMO wave has not yet erupted. Once the aunties rush into the market, prices could soar instantly!

The global liquidity will eventually "drown" the coin prices.

Central banks around the world are printing money like crazy, and the M2 money supply is skyrocketing. Bitcoin, as "digital gold", will inevitably reflect this. Some analysts boldly predict: "In a few months, the price will completely break through previous highs!"

Be wary of black swans

Regulatory flip-flops, exchange collapses, leveraged liquidations... Bitcoin has never been short of thrilling plots. But let's not forget that the current market has ETF support and institutional backing, making it difficult to revert to the "wild era" no matter how volatile it gets.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is being "de-mythologized"

Halving cycle? That is an ancient legend. Today's Bitcoin is a configured asset on Wall Street, a safe-haven tool for Middle Eastern sovereignty, and a policy testing ground for the White House. Its volatility may have slowed, but the stage is larger and the audience is bigger—this performance has just entered the second act!