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Bitcoin market share falls by 3.4%, altcoin seasonal index rebounds to 36丨 Gate Research Institute
Crypto Market Overview
BTC (-0.31% | Current Price 103,850 USDT) Last weekend, BTC fluctuated narrowly in the range of 102,500 to 105,000 USDT. This morning, after testing the upper band of the 4H Bollinger Bands, it failed to break through effectively, but at the same time, it received some support at the middle band of the 4H Bollinger Bands, overall remaining in the continuation phase of an upward trend.
Last week, the overall inflow of BTC ETFs was 920 million USD, achieving a net inflow for three consecutive weeks, with inflows of 3.03 billion USD and 1.81 billion USD in the previous two weeks, respectively. The continuous inflow of funds indicates optimism for the market outlook, and BTC is expected to break through the historical high of 109,500 USD in May.【2]
ETH (-1.44% | Current Price 2,500.76 USDT) Last weekend, ETH surged to $2,600, and is currently fluctuating within a narrow range between the middle band of the 4H Bollinger Bands. After building a base around a 7% market share, ETH has now rebounded to about 9%; after rising over 20% on May 8, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has also rebounded from the historical low of around 0.185 to above 0.024.
In stark contrast to the strong price performance of ETH in the market, last week saw a total outflow of $38 million from ETH ETFs. From the perspective of ETF capital inflows and outflows, the recent rise of ETH over the past week has little correlation with the ETFs; some opinions in the community even suggest that the current rise of ETH is merely due to various indicators being at historical lows and may just be a short-term rebound. [4]
Altcoin The Meme, Gate ETF, and AI Agent sectors are clearly outperforming the market average. In the Meme sector, MOODENG (SOL) has risen over 130% in the past 24 hours and over 10 times in the past month. The Fear and Greed Index is at 70, indicating that the current market is in a state of greed. [5]
Macro Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose, with the S&P 500 index up by 0.58%, closing at 5,663.94 points; the Dow Jones index up by 0.62%, closing at 41,368.45 points; and the Nasdaq index up by 1.07%, closing at 17,928.14 points.【6】
As of May 12, 10:00 AM (UTC+8), the spot gold price is temporarily reported at $3,276.73 per ounce, with a daily decline of 1.48%.【7】
Trending Tokens on Gate
MOODENG Moo Deng (+131.36%, circulating market cap 271 million USD) Moo Deng is a less-than-one-year-old pygmy hippo from Khao Kheow Zoo in Chonburi, Thailand. With its adorable appearance, round body, and unique exaggerated expressions, it quickly became a global sensation. As a Cancer sign little hippo, Moo Deng often displays a series of "rebellious" cute actions during daily interactions with its keepers, such as trying to "eat" the keepers or jumping around in fright in front of water sprays, which is quite amusing. These naturally humorous moments have made it an instant star on social media.
MOODENG has increased by more than 6 times in the past week, becoming the best-performing animal Meme coin in the market. The main reason for the recent rise of MOODENG is the listing of the MOODENG token on multiple mainstream trading platforms, which has stimulated the purchasing demand for MOODENG.
PIPPIN Pippin (+88.58%, circulating market cap 4,670 USD) Pippin is a modular AI agent framework designed to help developers build digital assistants that autonomously execute tasks, dynamically generate plans, and collaborate with external tools. Pippin is led by AI developer Yohei Nakajima, and its birth stems from the crypto market frenzy inadvertently triggered by Yohei while attempting to generate SVG images with AI, gradually evolving into a cultural symbol combined with AI technology.
In the past week, the AI agent sector outperformed the crypto market with an average increase, with funds prioritizing early hotspots that had previously been speculated within the sector. PIPPIN reached a historical high market capitalization of 330 million USD in January this year, with a maximum increase exceeding 40 times. As one of the popular tokens in the AI agent sector, PIPPIN has risen over 200% in the past week.
Pippin is both a technological innovation AI intelligent framework and a token project in the crypto community that combines Meme attributes with technical narratives. Its future development depends on the practical application of the framework and the maturity of the developer ecosystem.
GOAT Goatseus Maximus (+50.25%, circulating market cap 214 million USD) GOAT is a meme coin issued by the AI robot Truth Terminal. Since its launch in October 2024, GOAT has seen its price increase by over a hundred times at one point. However, in January of this year, alongside the overall market cooling and the correction in the AI agent sector, GOAT's market capitalization briefly fell below 50 million dollars.
In the past week, the overall crypto market has recovered, and the AI agent sector has shown a significantly stronger performance than the market average. Against this backdrop, GOAT has also seen several consecutive days of increases, with a weekly gain of over 200%, and its market capitalization has once again surpassed 200 million dollars.
Most Meme coins maintain relevance through price trends or "vibes," while the "AI agent" narrative of GOAT offers a unique story that sets it apart from many AI Memes. Some community perspectives believe that GOAT is not just an AI Meme coin, but represents a cultural phenomenon.
Alpha Interpretation
Bitcoin's market share has dropped by 3.4% in the past week, currently at 61.9% According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin's market dominance (BTCD) has dropped by 3.4% over the past week, currently reported at 61.9%. On May 8, BTCD reached a high of 64.4%, after which the overall crypto market rebounded, with ETH rising over 25% in a single day, leading altcoins to gain more market share.
The high market share of Bitcoin indicates the silence of the altcoin market, but it also represents that a market rebound is imminent. According to historical data, when Bitcoin's market share surged to 60% in November last year, altcoins began a mini bull market. In both 2019 and 2021, Bitcoin's market share reached a high point of over 70%, followed by a general upward trend in the market.
The altcoin season index has risen to 36, significantly up from the low point in April As of May 12, according to Coinmarketcap data, with the strong rise of ETH, the overall crypto market has rebounded strongly in the past week, and the altcoin season index has bottomed out and risen to 36. The data shows that the altcoin season index hit an annual high of 87 on December 4, 2024, and the overall market also peaked around the same time. Previously, at the end of April, the altcoin season index had dropped to 12, and the altcoin market also nearly bottomed out at the same time.
The altcoin season often follows a similar pattern: first, the BTC price rises rapidly, bringing positive bullish sentiment to the market; then, the ETH price begins to rise, with significant increases in network activity; finally, this upward trend drives market performance across various sectors, with rising prices attracting funds out of Bitcoin and into other emerging investment opportunities. This market dynamic is what is known as the altcoin season.
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction pace is slowing, and the current size has shrunk to $6.7 trillion The Fed's balance sheet shrank by $17 billion last month to $6.7 trillion, the lowest level since April 2020, according to publicly available market data. Since April 2022, the Fed has shrunk its balance sheet by $2.3 trillion, a 25% decline. That's about 48% of the $4.8 trillion the Fed bought during its post-pandemic response. The Fed currently holds $4.2 trillion in Treasuries and $2.2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In March, the Fed announced that it would slow the average pace of quantitative tightening (QT) from $60 billion per month to $40 billion. This proves that the pace of Fed balance sheet reduction is slowing.
The Federal Reserve's slowdown in tapering is generally positive for emerging risk assets like BTC. Firstly, a slower tapering pace means reduced pressure on market liquidity recovery, which helps boost investors' risk appetite, thereby driving funds back into high-volatility assets including Bitcoin; secondly, the market often interprets a slowdown in tapering as a signal that the tightening cycle is about to end, further strengthening expectations for a future shift in monetary policy towards easing (such as interest rate cuts or expanded balance sheets), and Bitcoin has historically responded positively to easing policies.
However, it is important to note that the Federal Reserve is still continuing to reduce its balance sheet, although at a slower pace, so the overall macro environment remains uncertain. The future trend of BTC still requires a comprehensive assessment based on factors such as economic growth, inflation data, and policy statements.
New Launch on Gate.io Launchpad
New Listing Details
Subscription time: May 13, 2025, 11:00 to May 16, 2025, 20:00 (UTC+8)
Token Price: 1 PFVS = 0.07 USDT
Total subscription amount: 10,000,000 PFVS
Single person limit: 10,000 PFVS
Distribution time: Released on the same day as TGE
Unlock method: 100% full unlock
Project Introduction PuffVerse is a metaverse gaming platform built on the Ronin chain, focusing on the "casual gaming + social + play-to-earn (P2E)" model. Puffverse is a Web3 gaming ecosystem created by the original game development team from Xiaomi, integrating strong Web2 development experience with cutting-edge Web3 technological concepts. With solid technical accumulation and product refinement capabilities, Puffverse received strategic investments from top Web3 investment institutions like Animoca Brands in 2024, showcasing its outstanding project potential and long-term development prospects.
Reference Material:
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Disclaimer Investing in the crypto market involves high risks. It is recommended that users conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products they purchase before making any investment decisions. Gate.io is not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from such investment decisions.