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Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: CPI May "Trigger" the Market, Is the Rate Cut Dream Shattered?
On June 7, the important macro data release nodes for next week are as follows: 22:00 on Monday, the monthly rate of wholesale sales in the United States in April; Monday 23:00, US New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations for May; Wednesday 20:30, US CPI data for May; At 22:30 on Wednesday, the United States EIA crude oil inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, strategic petroleum reserve inventories for the week to June 6; Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week to June 7, U.S. May PPI; At 22:00 on Friday, the preliminary one-year inflation rate expectations for June and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June in the United States. Next Wednesday's U.S. CPI report for May will test the market's optimism about a rate cut, as it could show a halt in the near-term downward trend in inflation. According to the Cleveland Fed's Nowcast model forecast, headline CPI is expected to rise 2.4% year-over-year in May, up from 2.3% in the previous month; Core CPI is expected to rise 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. Analysts expect three-month annualized core goods inflation to peak (4%-5%) early this fall, slightly lower and delayed than predicted before the "reciprocal tariffs" were suspended on 8 May.