As the Iranian missile cut through the night sky, the price of Bitcoin simultaneously fell below the important support level of $60,000—thus unfolding the intertwining plot of international affairs and financial markets.
The driving chain behind this fall is worth in-depth analysis:
First, the activation of the capital safety and risk aversion mechanism. After the news of Iran's military action broke, global investors immediately implemented risk aversion strategies—selling off risk assets and turning to the dollar. Data shows that the dollar index quickly climbed to 106, and U.S. Treasury yields rose to 4.6%. Global capital is withdrawing from risk markets at an astonishing speed, with high volatility assets like Bitcoin being the first to face liquidity depletion.
Secondly, there is a chain reaction in the derivatives market. After Israel stated that it would retaliate, the cryptocurrency contract market fell into chaos: under the dual impact of panic selling and short selling forces, over 1.6 billion dollars in long positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours, and the market also briefly bottomed out at 59600 dollars, further exacerbating investors' panic.
The most ironic challenge is the narrative of digital assets as a safe haven. In the face of actual military conflict, Bitcoin fell 15% in a single day, even surpassing the decline of the stock markets in the Middle East—this raises serious questions about the "digital gold" safe-haven property. On-chain monitoring data shows an even more severe situation: large holding addresses saw a net outflow of 42,000 BTC this week, and the deposit volume on exchanges reached its highest level in nearly six months, indicating that large funds are withdrawing amid geopolitical tensions.
However, historical data provides some optimistic perspectives: looking back at the US-Iran conflict in 2019 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, BTC usually achieves a significant rebound within three months after similar geopolitical shocks, with an average increase of 83%. As long as the situation in the Middle East does not further deteriorate to the point of nuclear facilities being attacked, the current weekly support at 58000 may hold, and this wave of panic selling might even lay the groundwork for the next round of increase.
The current market is filled with uncertainty, with various forces competing fiercely. The interaction between geopolitics and financial markets will continue to affect the price direction of digital assets.
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As the Iranian missile cut through the night sky, the price of Bitcoin simultaneously fell below the important support level of $60,000—thus unfolding the intertwining plot of international affairs and financial markets.
The driving chain behind this fall is worth in-depth analysis:
First, the activation of the capital safety and risk aversion mechanism. After the news of Iran's military action broke, global investors immediately implemented risk aversion strategies—selling off risk assets and turning to the dollar. Data shows that the dollar index quickly climbed to 106, and U.S. Treasury yields rose to 4.6%. Global capital is withdrawing from risk markets at an astonishing speed, with high volatility assets like Bitcoin being the first to face liquidity depletion.
Secondly, there is a chain reaction in the derivatives market. After Israel stated that it would retaliate, the cryptocurrency contract market fell into chaos: under the dual impact of panic selling and short selling forces, over 1.6 billion dollars in long positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours, and the market also briefly bottomed out at 59600 dollars, further exacerbating investors' panic.
The most ironic challenge is the narrative of digital assets as a safe haven. In the face of actual military conflict, Bitcoin fell 15% in a single day, even surpassing the decline of the stock markets in the Middle East—this raises serious questions about the "digital gold" safe-haven property. On-chain monitoring data shows an even more severe situation: large holding addresses saw a net outflow of 42,000 BTC this week, and the deposit volume on exchanges reached its highest level in nearly six months, indicating that large funds are withdrawing amid geopolitical tensions.
However, historical data provides some optimistic perspectives: looking back at the US-Iran conflict in 2019 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, BTC usually achieves a significant rebound within three months after similar geopolitical shocks, with an average increase of 83%. As long as the situation in the Middle East does not further deteriorate to the point of nuclear facilities being attacked, the current weekly support at 58000 may hold, and this wave of panic selling might even lay the groundwork for the next round of increase.
The current market is filled with uncertainty, with various forces competing fiercely. The interaction between geopolitics and financial markets will continue to affect the price direction of digital assets.