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Bitcoin Five-Year War Market Chart: The Evolution of Assets from Volatility to Resilience
Bitcoin's Performance in War: A Five-Year Price Trajectory Analysis
In recent years, significant global conflicts have erupted multiple times, having a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. This article will delve into the influence of major war events on Bitcoin price trends between 2020 and 2025, as well as the recovery trajectory of the crypto market after the conflicts end.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Turning Point for the Market
initial fluctuations and long-term effects
On February 24, 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict fully erupted. In the early stages of the conflict, the price of Bitcoin briefly rose by 20%, surpassing $45,000 at one point. However, as the war drove up European energy prices and triggered aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin experienced a substantial decline of 65% in 2022.
It is worth noting that compared to the situation during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Bitcoin in 2022 has developed into a more mature asset class that is more recognized by institutional investors. During the conflict, the Ukrainian government raised a significant amount of donations through digital currencies, highlighting the unique value of cryptocurrencies in special circumstances.
Middle East Conflict: A Test of Market Resilience
Israel-Gaza conflict
On October 7, 2023, the Israel-Gaza conflict broke out. In the early stages of the conflict, Bitcoin fell below $27,000, setting a new temporary low at that time. However, overall, the prices of digital assets did not experience significant fluctuations, reflecting a reduced sensitivity of the cryptocurrency market to geopolitical events.
Iran-Israel conflict
In April 2024, conflict erupted between Iran and Israel. On the day of the missile attack, Bitcoin's volatility was only ±3%, far lower than the levels during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. The participation of institutional investors has somewhat buffered market fluctuations.
In June 2025, Israel launched an airstrike against Iran. Within 24 hours of the event, Bitcoin fell by 4.5% to $104,343, and Ethereum dropped by 8.2% to $2,552. Nevertheless, this decline is still manageable relative to the severity of the event, demonstrating the resilience of the crypto market.
Ceasefire Moment: An Observational Window of Capital Logic
The signing of a ceasefire agreement often provides an excellent opportunity to observe capital flows. For example, after the Nagorno-Karabakh war ended in November 2020, Bitcoin almost doubled within 30 days. In contrast, during the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in March 2022, expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve undermined market confidence, leading to a 12% decline in Bitcoin.
In November 2023, on the day of the temporary ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, the cryptocurrency derivatives market experienced a massive liquidation. On January 15, 2025, Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement, and Bitcoin subsequently broke through the $100,000 mark, but then fell back again. These events prompted the market to reassess Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes.
The Arrival of the Institutional Era
As the cryptocurrency market matures, its response mechanism to wars is also becoming more sophisticated. Market participants closely monitor indicators such as crude oil prices, the VIX fear index, and open interest in the options market. Data shows that the proportion of safe-haven funds flowing into the cryptocurrency sector due to geopolitical conflicts is less than 5%.
However, the application value of digital assets in special scenarios remains significant. For example, the cryptocurrency donations received by the Ukrainian government accounted for 6.5% of its early international aid; the Gaza region uses Bitcoin mining machines to maintain communication networks; Iranian merchants leverage mixing technologies to evade sanctions, etc. These marginal applications are forming an ecosystem parallel to mainstream financial markets.
Post-war Recovery Mode
Historical experience shows that the end of conflicts usually leads to a gradual recovery of market confidence. The advancement of the peace process helps to reduce the geopolitical risk premium and enhances investors' risk appetite, which often benefits the performance of risk assets like Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin demonstrates good risk resistance during the war, it may attract more institutional investors to increase their allocation. Conversely, poor performance may face pressure from capital outflows. Recently, Bitcoin's relative stability amid geopolitical crises is expected to enhance its status in the eyes of institutional investors.
Future Outlook
Looking to the future, with technological advancements and improved regulatory frameworks, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are expected to play a more significant role in the global financial system. Although they may still face various challenges and fluctuations in the short term, their status as important financial tools in the digital age has been initially established.
In this era full of uncertainty, digital assets like Bitcoin are redefining people's understanding of currency, value storage, and financial systems. Although the path of development is fraught with challenges, the historical significance and potential value of this transformation cannot be ignored.