XRP price rise over 3.5%, Options market bets bullish, Spot ETF expectations heat up

According to CoinDesk, in the past 24 hours, the Crypto Assets XRP price has risen over 3.5%. Meanwhile, the trading volume data of Deribit exchange Options market has significantly increased, indicating that traders hold a bullish outlook on XRP's future.

XRP Options market bullish bets active

According to Amberdata data source, since July 1, in Deribit XRP Options trading, the following high strike price bullish options (call options) have been the most active:

• Call options with an expiration date of July 25 and a strike price of 3 USD
• Call Options expiring on July 25th with a strike price of 4 USD
• Bullish options expiring on September 28 with a strike price of 2.80 USD

Bullish options give the buyer the right to purchase the underlying asset (in this case, XRP) at a specific price (strike price) in the future, essentially betting on a price rise. For example, a trader purchasing a bullish option with a strike price of $3 is betting that the spot price of XRP will break $3 before July 25 (1 options contract on Deribit represents 1 XRP).

Options trading flow reveals market sentiment

In-depth analysis of trading flow reveals:

• The high volume of 3 USD bullish Options is mainly driven by buyers. In the past 24 hours, investors have purchased transactions (with market makers selling as counterparties) totaling 2 million contracts.
• In contrast, for the bullish Options with a strike price of 2.80 USD, investors mainly play the role of sellers (option writers).
• In the past 7 days, the bullish Options with a strike price of $3 is also the contract with the largest increase in open interest (open interest), indicating that new bullish bets are concentrated here.

Bullish sentiment stems from high approval expectations for the XRP spot ETF

The surge in high strike price bullish options activity is closely related to the market's growing expectations for the approval of the XRP spot ETF in the United States. Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart's latest assessment indicates that the probability of the SEC approving the XRP spot ETF has now reached 95%, making it almost a certainty.

Ripple applies for a U.S. banking license to enhance trust

On Wednesday (July 3), the financial technology company Ripple, which uses XRP for cross-border settlements, announced that it has applied for a national bank charter from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated on platform X: "If approved, we will be subject to both state (through NYDFS) and federal level regulation, setting a new (and unique!) benchmark for trust in the stablecoin market."

XRP/BTC exchange rate breaks bullish pattern

From a technical analysis perspective, the XRP to Bitcoin exchange rate may be about to rise, as it has successfully broken through the falling wedge pattern (falling wedge pattern).

• Descending wedge is a bullish reversal pattern, formed by two downward converging trendlines, indicating that the price fluctuation range is narrowing, and selling momentum is gradually weakening.
• When the price breaks above the trendline resistance, it confirms a bullish breakout signal, indicating that the bulls have regained control.
• The XRP/BTC has broken through the upper band, confirming a bullish breakout. This suggests that the pullback from the April high may be ending, and the long-term bullish trend for XRP may restart.

Pay attention to technical indicator divergence

Although the wedge breakout suggests that the direction of least resistance is upward, the main moving averages (MA) present conflicting signals:

• 50-day SMA (50-day SMA) and 100-day SMA (100-day SMA) are currently showing a downward trend.
• Both recently crossed below the 200-day SMA (200-day SMA), which is generally seen as a bearish signal.
• However, it is important to note that moving averages are lagging indicators. In the current context, the technical signal of a bullish wedge breakout should be given greater weight.