Polymarket's $50M Zelenskyy suit bet nears resolution

Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market platform, is under fire over a high-stakes bet on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wore a suit before July

As the $58 million market nears final resolution, allegations of manipulation have shaken user confidence and exposed structural concerns in decentralized dispute systems.

According to the official listing, the market titled “Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?” was to resolve as “Yes” if Zelenskyy was photographed or videotaped wearing a suit between May 22 and June 30, based on a consensus of credible reporting

Zelenskyy showed up at a NATO summit in The Hague on June 24 dressed in a collared shirt, black blazer, and matching pants. Many major news outlets, including the BBC, Reuters, and the New York Post, described the outfit as a suit.

Despite this, the resolution remains hotly contested. UMA (UMA), the decentralized oracle protocol used by Polymarket to settle markets, has overturned initial “Yes” resolutions twice following challenges from token holders. The outcome is now undergoing a final vote expected to conclude by July 4 at 2:09 AM ET.

The main point of contention lies in the interpretation. Supporters of a “Yes” decision argue that the outfit was unmistakably labeled as a suit in several credible media reports, as required by the market regulations. On the other hand, some UMA voters argue that Zelenskyy’s casual tailoring and lack of a tie make it incompatible with the traditional standard of formal business wear.

Critics note that a similar outfit worn in May was previously ruled as not a suit, setting a precedent that continues to influence voting. As a result of the controversy, large UMA token holders have been accused of manipulating the outcome to safeguard their financial positions

Observers argue the system enables wealthy participants to sway resolutions by bonding tokens and disputing claims, regardless of external consensus. These worries are in line with previous accusations against Polymarket for allegedly ignoring evidence in the resolution of a $120 million TikTok ban market and a $7 million Ukraine-U.S. mineral deal bet.

Polymarket itself has drawn criticism for distancing from the dispute. The platform’s @PolymarketIntel X account initially called the outfit a suit but has since been rebranded as “community-run.” Multiple proposals for creating a market integrity team have also been rejected.

With nearly $58 million in play, the outcome of the suit bet may impact Polymarket’s credibility at a time when it is reportedly finalizing a $200 million funding round