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MSTR was not selected for the S&P 500 index, is MicroStrategy's buying power for coins weakening and losing its advantage?
Bitcoin set a new historical high last week, but MSTR's stock price fell over 6% last Friday, still a distance away from the high of 543 USD in November last year. Is MSTR, as a leverage for Bitcoin, losing its advantage?
mNAV has been below 2 for two months, has MSTR lost its advantage?
As the pioneer of Bitcoin reserve companies, MicroStrategy has always been known for its advantages in Bitcoin leverage and agency, potentially surpassing Bitcoin itself through its structural leverage, asset net value premium, or embedded optionality of instruments such as convertible bonds—bringing amplified returns.
However, observing its mNAV (, the current stock price and the value of the Bitcoin it holds, compared to ), has fallen from a high of 3.89 in November last year to 1.9, hovering below 2 for nearly two months, raising the question of whether MSTR, as a Bitcoin leverage, is losing its advantage?
MSTR not selected for the S&P 500 index
Twitter founder Jack Dorsey's payment platform Block will replace Hess Corp. stock code HES( before the market opens on 7/23 to become a component of the S&P 500 Index, while the long-awaited Strategy has failed to join this quarter. If it enters the S&P 500 Index, Bitcoin will begin to "automatically permeate all portfolios," which includes traditional 401k, retirement funds, and a wide range of investors engaging in passive investing, and MSTR's stock price will have a greater opportunity to rise.
Strategy's financial report will be released on 7/31. With the rise of Bitcoin prices in the second quarter, Strategy previously forecasted an unrealized gain of 14.05 billion dollars in Bitcoin for the second quarter, expecting to record superior profits. One of the conditions for being included in the S&P 500 index is that "the profit for the most recent quarter is positive." Strategy is expected to qualify in the next quarter, but it will have to wait until after October to officially join the index.
MSTR trading volume has declined, and the decrease in volatility is detrimental to fundraising.
According to statistics from 10x Research, MSTR's trading volume has significantly decreased recently, with daily trading amount dropping from $15 billion to $5 billion. The 30-day volatility has also decreased sharply, from 165% to 58%, just slightly above Bitcoin's 43%. High volatility is a key factor in raising additional cash through the sale of stocks and convertible bonds, as the embedded stock options require substantial price fluctuations to increase their value.
MicroStrategy's buying power for Bitcoin is slowing down, and the stock price cannot advance smoothly.
Strategy only purchased 17,075 Bitcoins in June, far below the purchase quantity from January to May. I speculate that it may be due to the recent mNAV hovering at low points, making fundraising difficult, which has impacted MicroStrategy's coin purchasing speed. Additionally, part of its stock issuance will be used to pay high preferred stock dividends, and the continuous entry of competitors could all be reasons why its stock price has been unable to rise smoothly.
) Bitcoin is constantly hitting new highs, why is MicroStrategy MSTR not moving up? (
Month Amount of Bitcoin Purchased January 24,707 February 27,989 March 29,089 April 25,370 May 26,695 June 17,075
This article discusses whether MSTR, not selected for the S&P 500 index, is losing its advantage as MicroStrategy's buying power for Bitcoin slows down. First appeared on Chain News ABMedia.