Crypto market dynamics and predictions

Market Trends

macro environment

The possibility of the US Solana ETF being listed in 2025 is gaining widespread attention in the industry. A research director from a well-known asset management company believes that the previous 77% prediction probability has been underestimated. He pointed out that several institutions will apply to the regulatory authorities for the listing of a spot Solana ETF in June 2024. The director had previously stated that if a specific candidate wins the presidential election in 2024, the chances of approving the SOL ETF in 2025 will increase significantly. Currently, market expectations have risen to 86%, reflecting the industry's optimistic attitude towards the listing of more crypto market ETFs. However, for the Solana ETF to be successfully listed, it still needs to adopt a structure similar to that of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and avoid being classified as a security to evade stricter regulations.

Web3 field

An analyst from a research institution has released a forecast for the crypto market in 2025. He pointed out that as the MEV supply chain matures, the trading segment will face more intense competition, but the front end will still maintain its advantageous position. The total market value of the distributed physical infrastructure network (DePIN) is expected to grow fivefold, while the application of crypto payments in agency trading may be limited. Stablecoins are expected to transition from DeFi tools to actual medium of exchange, with active addresses likely to exceed 50 million. In addition, the boundary between wallets and applications will become increasingly blurred, and the importance of universal layer two networks in practical applications of chain abstraction may diminish.

Hot Events

macro environment

A well-known tech entrepreneur sparked a discussion about encryption trading taxes on social media. He mentioned an investor who bought a certain token for $7,000 and staked it for 3 months, achieving nearly 7,000% returns. However, after selling the profits and investing in a new project, he fell victim to fraud, managing to liquidate only 10% of his funds. This entrepreneur inquired whether gas fees during the trading process could be deducted to offset short-term capital gains tax. This statement quickly resonated in the market, causing the related token to surge 124% in a short period. It is understood that this token project aims to reform specific content industries through blockchain technology.

Web3 field

A certain Ethereum charitable fund recently completed a significant transaction, selling 3,690 ETH and earning $12.47 million. This is the first sale by the fund in 10 months and its largest transaction in history. The batch of ETH came from an early Ethereum investor who acquired 100,000 ETH during the ICO in July 2015. Currently, the investor has sold 14,990 ETH at an average price of $2,409, most of which was done through the charitable fund. The investor still holds 85,000 ETH, worth approximately $293.8 million. This transaction has attracted market attention towards Ethereum.

Hot Narrative

With a certain AI agent emerging on the crypto social platform, its market value reached 600 million USD in a short period, sparking analysis of its core competitiveness, especially the impact of its data aggregation technology. At the same time, as a leading provider of data aggregation infrastructure, a certain DAO and its token have also attracted attention. As user demand for data increases, the value of data aggregation is rising. The success of this AI agent stems from its unique model and powerful data analysis capabilities, which can generate market insights in real-time. In contrast, the certain DAO supports the AI agent by aggregating data sources. Although the DAO's market value is only 32 million USD, its potential is considered enormous in the context of the AI agent economy's development. With the launch of new features and incentive mechanisms, its token value is expected to rise.

Hot Projects

ZAILGO is an open-source AI agent and machine learning model platform, serving as an upgraded version of a certain framework. The platform integrates specific blockchains and vector databases, supporting CI/CD with Kubernetes and Docker. This enables users to develop and deploy applications more efficiently, leveraging cloud-native technologies to optimize processes. The project was launched by well-known developers, with a market value that briefly exceeded $70 million, setting a new historical high, and a 24-hour increase of 208%.