#美国经济指标分析# Looking back on the past 32 years, the decisions of the Fed have always attracted attention. The appearance of two dissenting votes in this meeting indeed evokes many thoughts. Since 1993, this is the first time. Waller and Bowman’s dissenting votes undoubtedly sound the alarm for the current economic situation.

Upon closer examination, this reflects different interpretations of the current economic situation. On one hand, GDP growth exceeded expectations, reaching 3.0%; on the other hand, demand from private enterprises and consumers is slowing down. This contradictory data inevitably reminds one of similar scenarios in history.

Remember that on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis, there were also mixed economic data. At that time, many people ignored the potential risk signals. Now, we should be more cautious about these seemingly contradictory data.

The impact of tariff policies cannot be underestimated. In recent years, adjustments to tariff policies have brought significant shocks to the economy. The stockpiling of inventory by companies and changes in consumer spending are closely related to this. It reminds me of the "Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act" during the Great Depression of the 1930s, where the protectionist trade policies ultimately exacerbated the economic downturn.

In the long run, the Fed's decisions will significantly impact the future direction of the economy. Should it continue to maintain high interest rates to curb inflation, or should it timely lower rates to stimulate the economy? This requires weighing the pros and cons and making prudent judgments. History tells us that premature or delayed policy adjustments may lead to adverse consequences.

Overall, the current economic situation is quite challenging. We need to learn from historical lessons and closely monitor changes in various economic indicators in order to make more informed decisions in future economic cycles. After all, history always repeats itself in different ways.