Summary of the market trends in this cycle of the crypto world.

Today is August 7, 2025, and let's get straight to the conclusion: I believe this bull market cycle will end by the end of this year.
Why do you say that? The core reason lies in inflation in the United States. Since Trump took office, inflation has shown signs of a bit of a resurgence, and the possibility of interest rate cuts is becoming slimmer. In other words, relying on monetary easing to support the market in 2026 is almost unrealistic. Therefore, looking from now on, Bitcoin may peak in October, then giving altcoins and ETH two months of performance time, and December might mark the final climax of this wave of the market, after which it will head downhill. All the programs in the crypto world have already been presented, and the audience is gradually leaving, so there is no need for the host to continue this banquet.
You might say that the Federal Reserve may not be able to withstand employment pressure and start easing, or that Trump could arrange for his own people to get it done. The reality is that the Federal Reserve has done this in the past: prioritizing employment and listening to the president, and it ended up backfiring. So even if the new chair is someone chosen by Trump himself, it's unlikely they will go all out to prop up the market for him.
Looking back at this round of bull market, Bitcoin rose from 15,000 to 120,000, which is certainly a bull market. But if you look at the trends of most altcoins, they resemble more of a rebound after the crash of the bull market in 2021, rather than a comprehensive bull.
In fact, the true starting point of this market cycle was when the Federal Reserve hinted at interest rate cuts. A large amount of smart money entered the market early, pushing Bitcoin from 1.5 to 40,000. After that, with the approval of ETFs, significant ETF funds came in and lifted Bitcoin from 40,000 to 70,000. Therefore, we can roughly estimate that the average holding cost for American institutions is around 50,000. This period was also the only time during the entire cycle when retail investors could make money. Even during the interest rate cut cycle from September to November 2024, retail investors won't be able to make money. Most of those who are currently trapped likely entered the market during that time. As mentioned earlier, the earliest cost for American capital is about 50,000, so around January 2025, after Bitcoin reaches 100,000, American institutions will start to gradually offload their holdings. At this point, the difference between institutional and retail trading strategies becomes apparent. Bitcoin will slowly drop from 100,000 to 70,000. Although the decline is not large, the trading volume is huge. Seeing the trading volume, exchanges and various altcoin speculators will think that Americans are all fleeing. Consequently, altcoins started to plummet at the end of November because after March 2024, traditional retail players in the crypto world were manipulated by institutional trading strategies to the point of confusion, and there were hardly any new retail investors coming in to take over the altcoins. Thus, the dumping of altcoins was very brutal, as they feared being stuck with them. After this, the crypto world has essentially become hollow, leaving behind a bunch of laid-back project parties and retail investors who are stuck with altcoins.
What's the next step? I believe there is a high probability of interest rate cuts in September. Bitcoin may slowly rise to the previous high under the expectation of interest rate cuts. In November and December, if the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, Bitcoin could surge to 130,000 by October, and altcoins will also follow along, but likely only reach about half of their historical highs.
By then, the average cost for American institutions will be around 100,000, so they will sell at a high point. However, due to poor liquidity at the end of the year, exchanges, market makers, retail investors, and institutions may all flee together, and American institutions may not be able to sell everything, leaving the rest for the next round to continue selling.
I judge that the next cycle will not start until at least the first quarter of 2027.