Crypto Market Weekly Report: From Counterplay to Breakout in the Bull vs Bear Battle

This week, the crypto market experienced extreme fluctuations, from panic selling to a brief rebound, and then to accelerated declines after technical breakdowns, with each stage accompanied by the resonance of capital flows and macro factors. Bitcoin failed to hold its key support level, and altcoins generally fell, with market sentiment shifting from cautious optimism at the beginning of the month to a clear cooling off. Below, we conduct an in-depth analysis from four aspects: market trends, core capital indicators, altcoin market dynamics, and future outlook.

1. Market Context: Three Stages from "Rebound Testing" to "Breakdown and Downward Movement"

The core logic of this week's market can be summarized as "divergence between technical and fundamental aspects → resonant decline", which can be divided into three stages:

1. Panic Sell-off ( July 25 ): A massive sell-off triggered a chain reaction, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below the key support level of $115,000, reaching a temporary low. This reflects both the realization of profits from earlier stages and the market's concerns about macroeconomic uncertainties.

2. Exceeding Expectations Rebound ( July 26 ): The market has shown a technical correction, with Bitcoin rebounding over $3,000 from its low, reaching a high of $118,000. The rebound was driven by funds replenishing after a short-term oversold condition, and news of a certain company increasing its holdings near $117,000 boosted market confidence.

3. Breakout Acceleration ( July 31 - August 1 ): After the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals, the technical outlook for Bitcoin has shown signs of fatigue. On the evening of July 31, the price fell below the support level of $115,000. On August 1, compounded by the decline in the U.S. stock market and the implementation of tariff policies, Bitcoin accelerated its decline, reaching a low below $110,000, forming a "macro + technical" double negative.

2. Core Capital Indicators: Three Dimensions Reveal the "Cooling Truth" of the Market

2.1 Stablecoins: Issuance plummeted by 97%, capital inflow nearly stalled

This week, the total market value of stablecoins is $227.77 billion, with a weekly issuance of only $0.072 billion, a decrease of 97% compared to last week's $2.623 billion. The average daily issuance has dropped from $3.75 billion to $0.1 billion. This data marks the lowest value in nearly 12 weeks, indicating that incremental funds have almost "stopped flowing".

Historically, the issuance of stablecoins is an important leading indicator of market uptrends. This week's "zero growth" state reflects investors' cautious attitude towards the current level.

2.2 ETF: After the inflow was "halved", it remains at a low level, and institutional attitudes have turned cautious.

Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $299.9 million this week, which is roughly the same as last week, but has significantly shrunk compared to the first half of July. It is worth noting that on Friday, the ETF experienced a single-day net outflow, marking the first time in nearly three weeks, which created a "negative feedback" with the accelerating decline in Bitcoin prices.

The "withdrawal" of institutional funds is not coincidental: on one hand, high valuations have led some institutions to choose to take profits; on the other hand, the tightening macro interest rate environment has increased the opportunity cost of holding encryption assets, reducing the willingness of institutions to allocate.

2.3 Holder Structure: The contradiction between long and short positions intensifies, and the short-term support capacity approaches its limit.

On-chain data shows that this week, the long-term holder of Bitcoin ( has held the coin for over 1 year, and the holding volume of ) has continued to decline, while the short-term holders of ( who have held the coin for less than 3 months have seen their holding volume accelerate upward, forming a "Bull vs Bear Battle" pattern.

This phenomenon reflects that long-term holders are cashing out profits at high levels, while short-term holders are trying to seize rebound gains by "bottom fishing". The risk lies in the fact that the accelerated decline this Friday may indicate that the purchasing power of short-term holders is approaching its limit. When short-term funds cannot absorb the selling pressure from long-term holders, the market is likely to experience a "Bull vs Bear Battle".

In addition, a certain company purchased 210,200 bitcoins at an average cost of $117,256 on July 29, marking the largest purchase in the past four months. The company's current average cost for holding bitcoins is $73,277, with a total of 6,287,900 bitcoins. This has become an important component of the capital inflow into the crypto market.

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3. Shanzhai Market: "Following the drop, not the rise" has become the norm, and the entire line has entered "defensive mode".

) 3.1 Market Capitalization and Activity: Dual Shrinkage, Funds Concentrating on Core Assets

The total market value of altcoins fell by 6.4% this week, closing at $964 billion, while Bitcoin's market share increased from 61% last week to 62%, indicating that funds are shifting from small and mid-cap cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin.

On-chain activity cooling down: Total TVL ### locked value ( decreased by 16.2% to $136.1 billion, DEX trading volume dropped by 17.3%, with TVL declines of over 10% across multiple public chains, reflecting a sharp decline in user participation and trading enthusiasm.

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) 3.2 Sector Divergence: Only a few cryptocurrencies are experiencing fluctuations, while the majority have fallen into a "slumber".

This week among altcoins, only a few currencies performed actively due to specific news, such as one currency that surged over 50% in a single day after being listed on a Korean exchange, and another currency that rose 20% in the short term due to rumors of "launching an ETF." Although small-cap currencies experienced intraday fluctuations, they lacked sustainability.

The mainstream altcoin sector ###, including DeFi, NFT, and AI (, has generally declined, with the meme coin sector falling over 8%, becoming a hard-hit area, reflecting that speculative funds are withdrawing from high-risk areas.

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) 3.3 Sentiment Indicator: The prosperity index has fallen below the "uptrend line" and entered the "wait-and-see zone".

The Shanzhai Index has dropped from 42 last week to 35, remaining in a downtrend for five consecutive days, indicating a continuous loss of confidence in small-cap currencies in the market.

The on-chain prosperity index fell to 50 points this week, just dropping below the "uptrend line" of 60 points. In the sub-data, the income from DEX protocols, the number of active users, and trading volume have all seen significant declines, indicating that the "profit effect" of altcoins has disappeared.

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) 3.4 Secondary Market Trend Analysis

The market share of Bitcoin is 62%. After a week of fluctuations, the market has not effectively broken through the previous high, leading to further increases in the market. The sentiment towards altcoins is gradually cooling down, and the market share of Bitcoin is starting to rise.

Some altcoins against Bitcoin's exchange rate remained in a range-bound consolidation during the first half of the week, with some coins still relatively strong, while others showed relative weakness, leading to a noticeable decline in the sector. On Thursday, with Bitcoin's decline, the overall market further weakened along with other mainstream coins.

3.5 On-chain Data Analysis

In terms of on-chain asset flows and stablecoin supply, a certain mainstream coin has the highest net inflow, while a certain public chain has the highest net outflow, and the trend remains unchanged.

The on-chain user activity and speculative sentiment have been good this week for multiple public chains. In comparison, the trend still shows that some mainstream public chains are performing better.

In terms of speculative sentiment, the protocol revenue, active users, and trading volume of DEX have all significantly decreased, leading to a noticeable decline in overall data, and maintaining a relatively cautious outlook for the future market.

4. Market Outlook: Key Levels and Stabilization Signals

4.1 Technical Analysis: Two Major Support Levels and One "Gap"

Short-term support: around $110,000 (, this week's low point area, also the dense trading area from late June to early July ).

Strong support: $93,000 - $106,000 range ### URPD data shows that over 2 million bitcoins have accumulated in this range, which is the "cost zone" for medium to long-term funds (

Risk point: $112,000 has a URPD gap ), indicating that there are few chips at this price level. If it falls below $110,000, it may quickly rebound to $106,000 (.

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) 4.2 Funding situation: Three stabilization signals

1. Stablecoin weekly issuance returns to over $500 million
2. Bitcoin ETF weekly inflows exceed 1 billion USD
3. Long-term holders' positions stopped declining, indicating easing selling pressure (.

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( 4.3 Operation Suggestions

Short term ) 1-2 weeks (: Keep the position below 30%, avoid blindly bottom-fishing, wait for a clear reversal candlestick ) such as a strong bullish candle, or not making new lows for two consecutive days ###.

In the medium to long term ( 1-3 months ): If Bitcoin forms a double bottom in the range of 93,000 - 106,000 USD, and the funding situation improves, quality targets ( such as top public chain tokens and DeFi projects with strong performance certainty can be gradually laid out ).

Altcoins: Wait for Bitcoin to stabilize and prioritize selecting coins with "declines smaller than the market + sector logic not broken" such as Layer 2, modular public chains, and other areas with actual progress (.

The market adjustment this week is both a "digestion" of the previous rise and a result of the combined effects of macroeconomic factors and capital flows. For investors, there is no need to panic excessively; the long-term logic of core assets remains unchanged, but patience is required—"waiting for the right time" in the crypto market is often more important than "frequent trading."

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