Will Bitcoin have a big dump after reaching a new high?

According to Gate market data, on August 14, Bitcoin surged through the $124,000 mark with great momentum, reaching a historic high of $124,450, with a 24-hour rise of up to 3.4%. The market frenzy was not over yet, but on the evening of August 14, the situation changed dramatically—BTC price fell from the high of $123,000 all the way down to a low of $117,184, and then fluctuated around $118,800. A Bearish line pierced the market sentiment, raising heavy doubts in investors' minds: after the historic high, is a big dump about to come?

##The Technical Battle Between Bulls and Bears Behind the New Highs

• Strong Breakthrough and Key Support: Bitcoin strongly broke through the key resistance zone of $122,000-$122,500 this week, stabilizing above $123,000, forming a "bullish structure." Technical indicators are generally bullish: the Parabolic SAR point is as low as $114,352, far below the current price; Supertrend trend support is at $115,330; on the 4-hour chart, the 20/50/100/200 EMA lines are all in a bullish arrangement, with $120,467 (20 EMA) forming dynamic support.

• Short-seller counterattack signal emerging: The flash crash in the early hours of August 15 is not an isolated event. The daily K-line has broken through key support levels, and the four-hour line shows a 'high position dive' pattern. Some analysts have observed a 'bearish arrangement' moving average system combined with a drastic contraction in trading volume forming a 'bearish resonance,' as well as the 'evening star' warning pattern appearing in Ethereum. The long and short forces are fiercely contesting in the $117,000-$119,000 range, with direction unclear.

##Three Major Downward Warning Signals Illuminate Yellow Light

1. Overbought pullback pressure surges: The Money Flow Index (MFI) of Bitcoin's 4-hour chart has reached 85.27, entering the overbought zone. Historical data shows that when the MFI breaks above 85, it is often accompanied by short-term pullbacks or sideways consolidation, building momentum for subsequent rises.

2. Major capital flows are surging: Although there was a net outflow of $78.5 million from the exchange on August 14, indicating that large amounts of capital are still accumulating positions, during the big dump on August 15, the major players clearly used the liquidity gap to conduct a "double kill" on both long and short positions. An expert in the crypto circle pointed out: "After 123,000 formed a high neckline, all bulls liquidated their positions," suggesting that institutions are liquidating their profit positions at high levels.

3. Volume-price divergence warning risk: When hitting a new high of $124,000, the trading volume did not increase synchronously, forming a volume-price divergence. During the decline, the volume shrank, indicating insufficient buying support. If the $117,000 support is lost, it may trigger a chain sell-off, probing down to $115,330 (Supertrend support) or even the $112,000-$116,000 demand zone.

##The foundation of the bull market remains unbroken, but beware of the "high tightrope" market.

• Macroeconomic benefits support long-term logic: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are heating up, driving market liquidity towards risk assets, with institutional funds continuously flowing in through Bitcoin ETFs. The total market value of Bitcoin has surpassed Google, becoming the fifth largest asset globally, establishing its position in the mainstream financial system.

• Short-term entry into a high-risk volatility phase: A surge in conflicting technical signals: the bullish engulfing pattern coexists with bearish aligned moving averages, and the wide opening of the Bollinger Bands indicates increased volatility. Analyst Coin Circle Li Ying stated: "There is a high probability that the market will enter a short-term bearish trend, and it is not ruled out that the major players will liquidate back and forth." The current market is like walking on a tightrope; any slight disturbance could trigger severe fluctuations.

##Short-term Trend Prediction and Trading Strategy

• Key position battle: Bullish defense line: $117,000 (four-hour Bollinger Band lower edge) → $115,330 (Supertrend support) → $112,000-116,000 (demand zone). Bearish stronghold: $119,000-$119,500 (moving average resistance zone) → $124,223 (channel upper edge) → $126,785 (R5 resistance level).

• Operational logic suggestions:

  • Conservative strategy: If it falls below $117,000, you can partially take profit and wait for the 112,000-116,000 area to stabilize before gradually entering long positions.
  • Aggressive strategy: Short with a light position around $119,000, stop loss at $120,500, target at $115,000; or place a long order at $112,500, stop loss at $111,500, target above $115,000.

The market always walks on the tightrope of greed and fear. The flash crash on the evening of August 14th was like a bucket of cold water, waking up investors who were intoxicated by historical highs—when the bullish signal of the Parabolic SAR and the overbought warning of the MFI flashed simultaneously, and institutional funds quietly changed hands in the dark, the game after the new high always belongs to the awake.