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After Grayscale GBTC transformed into an ETF, there has been continuous selling pressure and capital outflow affecting the Bitcoin market.
The Turning Point of Grayscale: From Bull Run Driven to Bear Market Pressure
Since its inception, Grayscale has been an important institutional investor in the cryptocurrency space. As a subsidiary of DCG, Grayscale provides compliant investment channels for crypto assets through trust funds, with funding primarily coming from institutional investors and retirement funds.
On January 11, Grayscale's GBTC trust successfully converted to a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, this transition has triggered ongoing selling pressure. As of now, GBTC has accumulated an outflow of $3.45 billion, making it a major factor in the overall outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs.
Before the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Grayscale was an important driving force in the crypto market. In 2020, when Bitcoin ETF applications were delayed in approval, Grayscale became the main channel for institutional investors to enter the crypto market and was even seen as a catalyst for the bull run.
However, with the launch of the ETF, the situation has changed. As early as June 2023, when it was reported that BlackRock applied for a spot Bitcoin ETF, the negative premium of GBTC began to gradually narrow. It decreased from a historical high of 30% to close to zero, and many early investors have reached the time to take profits and exit.
Currently, the continuous selling pressure of GBTC has become the focus of market attention. As of January 23, the total trading volume of all spot Bitcoin ETFs in the first 7 trading days is approximately 19 billion USD, with GBTC accounting for more than half. This means that the incremental funds brought by the ETFs are still hedging against the continuous outflow of GBTC.
One important reason for the outflow of funds from GBTC is its high management fee. The 1.5% management fee for GBTC is significantly higher than the fee range of 0.2%-0.9% for other ETF products.
Looking ahead, GBTC still holds approximately 500,000 Bitcoins (worth about $20 billion). This will be an open game, with new institutions and funds possibly waiting for the right moment to accumulate chips. Therefore, the selling pressure from GBTC may continue to affect market sentiment for some time.
For the cryptocurrency industry, this cycle may teach us not to overly rely on the layout of large institutions. While the market is developing rapidly, it becomes particularly important to maintain rationality and independent thinking.