FIL/USDT, I will analyze in detail based on technical indicators and the Price Action method

  1. Identify the key trends of the market Current price against EMAs (7, 25, 99):
  • 1H:
  • Current price (3.029) is below EMA(7) (3.054), EMA(25) (3.080) and EMA(99) (3.102).
  • The short-term downtrend is clear.
  • 4H:
  • The current price (3.028) is below EMA(7) (3.072), EMA(25) (3.099), and EMA(99) (3.205).
  • The medium-term downtrend continues.
  • 1D:
  • Price (3.028) is below EMA(7) (3.108), EMA(25) (3.310), and EMA(99) (4.147).
  • The long-term downtrend still dominates.
  • 1W:
  • Price (3.028) is below EMA(7) (3.669), EMA(25) (4.392), and EMA(99) (7.746).
  • The long-term downtrend is very strong. Compare trends across timeframes:
  • All timeframes from 1H to 1W are in agreement with the downtrend. This shows that selling pressure is dominating the market. Break of Structure (BOS) & Change of Character (ChoCH):
  • 1H: No sign of BOS or. The price continues to fall below the EMAs.
  • 4H: The BOS decline occurred when the price broke the 3.10 support level.
  • 1D: The BOS decline occurred when the price broke the 3.30 support zone, confirming a sharp downtrend.
  • 1W: The long-term downtrend has been confirmed earlier. Market momentum (OBV, MFI):
  • OBV: Cash flow fell sharply on all timeframes, confirming great selling pressure.
  • MFI: There is currently no sign of overselling, indicating that selling pressure still has room. Open Interest (OI):
  • OI decreased slightly, indicating that large cash flows are withdrawing from the market, rather than accumulating.

  1. Identify key support & resistance zones Major Supports and Resistances: -Support:
  • 1H & 4H: Short-term support zone at 2.90 (mức the bottom near nhất).
  • 1D: Strong support at 2.58 (đáy before đó).
  • 1W: Long-term support at 2.50 (vùng trọng) sentiment price. -Resistance:
  • 1H & 4H: EMA(7) (~3.054) and EMA(25) (~3.080).
  • 1D: EMA(7) (~3.108) and EMA(25) (~3.310).
  • 1W: EMA(7) (~3.669). Fibonacci Retracement Reaction:
  • Fibonacci retracement from the top of 6.65 to the bottom of 2.58:
  • The current price is hovering around 23.6% (~3.10). This is an important resistance area. Liquidity Grab:
  • There are signs of liquidity scanning at the 2.90 area before the price recovers slightly. The next target if the support is broken:
  • If the price breaks the 2.90 support, the next target is the 2.58 zone (hỗ the strongest support near đây).

  1. Candlestick Pattern Analysis and Price Action Candlestick pattern:
  • 1H: Long bearish candles appeared, confirming strong selling pressure.
  • 4H: No clear reversal candlestick pattern. Prices continue to fall.
  • 1D: Consecutive bearish candles appear, with no signs of reversal.
  • 1W: Strong bearish candle, confirming the long-term downtrend. Fakeout and price traps:
  • There are no obvious signs of fakeout or price traps on the timeframes. Confirm the signal with Volume & Delta Volume:
  • Delta Volume shows that selling pressure still prevails, with selling volume outperforming buying.

  1. Technical indicator analysis to confirm signals MACD:
  • 1H, 4H, 1D: MACD Histogram negative, no crossover signals or convergent divergences.
  • 1W: MACD Histogram negative, confirming the long-term downtrend. RSI:
  • 1H, 4H, 1D: The RSI is in the neutral zone (~40-50), with no signs of oversold or overbought.
  • 1W: RSI descends, confirming the downtrend. Bollinger Bands:
  • The price is fluctuating near the lower border of the Bollinger Bands on the 1H and 4H frames, indicating great selling pressure.
  • No obvious breakouts. OBV & MFI:
  • OBV decreases across all timeframes, confirming cash outflows.
  • MFI shows no signs of reversal.

  1. Smart Cash Flow Analysis (Smart Money Concept - SMC)

Order Block (OB):

  • Price is reacting at the Order Block down on the 4H frame (~3.10).

Break of Structure (BOS) or Change of Character (ChoCH):

  • A bearish BOS occurred on the 1D and 1W frames, confirming a sharp downtrend.

Liquidity Grab:

  • There are signs of liquidity scanning at the 2.90 area before the price recovers slightly.

6. Determining the market stage according to the Wyckoff Method

  • (Accumulation) accumulation: There are no obvious signs of accumulation.
  • (Markdown) discount: The market is in a Markdown phase, with a sharp downtrend and large volume when breaking support.
  1. Suggest a trading strategy If the market continues to fall: -Shorts:
  • Entry Point: When the price is retested EMA(7) (~3.054 - 3.10) and rejected.
  • Objective: Zone 2.58.
  • Stop-loss: Above EMA(25) (~3.10). If the market accumulates:
  • Waiting to buy:
  • When the price makes a new bottom at the 2.58 area and a (Spring accumulation signal appears, the Volume tăng). If the market reverses: -Buy:
  • When the price exceeds EMA(25) on the 1D frame (~3.310) with a sharp increase in Volume.
  • Target: Zone 3.60 (kháng theo) resistance.
FIL-5.48%
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