Has The Bitcoin Supercycle Already Begun? – The End Of The Classic Four-Year Cycles

Since Bitcoin was introduced, the market has been characterized by a regularly recurring four-year cycle – fueled by the so-called “halving,” in which the reward for mining new Bitcoins is halved. These cycles were relatively predictable: a sharp price increase was usually followed by a long correction with massive price losses. However, there are now increasing signs that this model is reaching its limits. The global financial situation, institutional adoption, and structural changes in the market suggest that we must say goodbye to simple, symmetrical cycles. Instead, Bitcoin could be entering a new era – a phase of continuous, less volatile development, also known as a supercycle.

Structural Change in the Bitcoin Market

Previous bear markets were often characterized by fundamental skepticism. In 2014 and 2018, for example, many investors doubted Bitcoin’s long-term viability. Technical challenges, a lack of use cases, and the bursting of hypes such as the ICO boom reinforced the uncertainty.

Bitcoin price chart (Tradingview)

ADVERTISEMENTToday, the situation is different. The market structure has changed fundamentally. Institutional investors, listed companies, and even governments are active in the Bitcoin market. These players are not acting out of short-term enthusiasm, but are pursuing strategic goals with a long-term horizon. The idea that Bitcoin could “fail” seems far less realistic in 2025 than it did just a few years ago.

Psychology, Macroeconomics, and New Dynamics

Despite these structural changes, human psychology remains a decisive factor in the financial market. Even in the context of a potential supercycle, price declines are possible – perhaps even inevitable. However, these declines could differ significantly from previous “crypto winters.”

In the past, corrections of up to 80% were triggered not only by overvaluation, but also by dwindling confidence in the entire concept. Today, such declines are more likely to be technical in nature or caused by external shocks – and they could be shorter and less dramatic. Even if Bitcoin undergoes another sharp correction, the narrative of “Bitcoin’s failure” will hardly be credible anymore.

ADVERTISEMENT## The Role of Institutional Investors and Companies

A key factor in the new market dynamics is the growing influence of companies and institutional investors. More and more companies are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, not only as a hedge against inflation, but also as a strategic asset.

The crucial question will be how these players react to market changes: How heavily leveraged are they? How stable is their demand when prices fall? How long-term is their commitment? The answers to these questions will largely determine whether a supercycle actually lasts – or whether it is replaced by a new type of institutionally driven volatility.

The Difference Between Correction and Disillusionment

It is important to clearly distinguish between two phenomena: price declines and fundamental disillusionment. A 70 percent decline following speculative exaggeration may be painful, but it is not synonymous with a collapse of the system.

In contrast, the period following the collapse of FTX and other centralized players in 2022 was an example of disillusionment: many saw Bitcoin as finished, institutional confidence waned, and regulatory uncertainty increased. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has recovered in the aftermath – stronger than ever. This resilience supports the assumption that future declines will be technical corrections rather than existential crises.

Outlook – Shorter Cycles and Sustainable Growth

Another potential difference from the previous model lies in the duration of upturns and downturns. Previous bear markets lasted over a year in some cases. In a supercycle scenario, downturns could be significantly shorter – similar to the COVID-related downturn in 2020, which lasted only a few weeks.

This is also related to the increasing maturity of the market. Liquidity is more readily available today, and reactions to macro trends are more immediate. At the same time, there is a growing ecosystem that can cushion price declines – from DeFi to Bitcoin treasuries of listed companies.

ADVERTISEMENT## Evolution Instead of Revolution

Whether the Bitcoin supercycle has already begun is easier to assess in retrospect than in real time. However, there are many indications that we are at the beginning of a new phase in which classic models will have to be revised. The market is changing, and with it the rules.

Bitcoin remains a volatile asset. But it has long since become more than just a speculative game. It is a global store of value, a geopolitical issue, and a catalyst for innovation. The question is no longer whether Bitcoin will survive, but in what form it will evolve.

A supercycle does not mean that there will be no more declines, but that these declines will be embedded in a long-term upward trend, driven by structural demand, global relevance, and growing maturity.

Author

Ed Prinz serves as chairman of Austria’s most renowned non-profit organization specializing in blockchain technology. DLT Austria is actively involved in educating and promoting the value and application possibilities of distributed ledger technology. This is done through educational events, meetups, workshops, and open discussion forums, all in voluntary collaboration with leading industry players.

👉 Website

👉 LinkedIn

Disclaimer

This is my personal opinion and not financial advice.

For this reason, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information in this article. If you are unsure, you should consult a qualified advisor whom you trust. This article does not make any guarantees or promises regarding profits. All statements in this and other articles are my personal opinion.