July Preview of Bitcoin: History Shows Don't Trust the Silence

Market strategist Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) has focused on the statistics of Bitcoin's dozing habits throughout June before rewarding - and sometimes punishing - traders in the following quarter. "Historically, June for BTC is quite a slow month," he wrote, noting that the recently concluded period was no exception, with spot prices meandering within a narrow range and ending "rather flat." This comment came with a Coinglass heatmap of monthly profits dating back to 2013 and vividly illustrates the summer pattern he refers to. What does July hold for Bitcoin The numbers support this observation. According to Coinglass data, the average profit in June over the past twelve years is essentially zero (-0.12%), while July achieves a remarkable average of +7.56% and even stronger at +8.90% on average. August cools down to a modest average of +1.75%, and September is typically when selling pressure occurs frequently, averaging -3.77% with an average negative of -4.35%. A simple frequency count emphasizes the asymmetry: July has ended in the green in eight of the last twelve years, while August and September have only achieved four positive results each year. The years that veterans still remember - the explosion of +65.32% in August 2017 followed by a decline of -7.44% in September, or the price increase of +24.03% in July 2020 that succumbed to a retracement of -7.51% in September - seem to have etched the story of "the big boom" into collective memory.

Daan's takeaway is that behavior matters more than predictions: "August and September are typically when we see a large sell-off, but it's also the time when you often want to buy in ahead of the year-end price surge... it's good to be aware of these seasonal patterns. This way, you can focus more on the larger time frame and won't get scared or overly excited too easily." This comment comes just as Bitcoin tests a group of long-term resistance levels. In a post on Saturday, he reminded his followers that BTC "is close to its all-time high but at resistance... [it] has yet to close a weekly candle or more than two consecutive daily candles above that resistance level. Once it does close, we can start getting excited for a larger move." The conversation about seasonality is important as it collides with the dense macroeconomic calendar and illiquid holiday periods. Although historical averages do not guarantee future performance, the heat map shows that directional sentiment often returns in October – the best-performing month on the board with an average of +21.89%. For traders, this leaves a two-month corridor where whipsaw moves are common and positioning discipline becomes crucial. Daan expands the framework for altcoins through the TOTAL3 index (, which measures the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ether). "The TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap has held its local support level but has yet to show any clear trend... to really achieve this higher timeframe move, you want to break above the local highs around ~$950 B. At that point, you can start targeting the cycle highs." Whether 2025 will repeat the seasonal pattern will depend on the macro environment, ETF cash flow, and above all, the ability to convert resistance into new price exploration for Bitcoin. Until that weekly closing level arrives, experienced traders seem satisfied with holding expectations for a summer tightly linked to the data - exactly as Daan recommends.