XRP Whale transfers and valuation indicators surge, the $3 level becomes a key watershed.

Whale transfer raises market alert, possibly a short-term sell signal Large amounts of XRP moving into exchanges often signal potential selling pressure. Currently, this transfer of 25.5 million coins may indicate that large holders are choosing to arbitrage and exit, especially as it approaches the previous resistance level of $3.03. Historically, similar situations have often triggered short-term corrections or sideways fluctuations.

NVT surged 39%, valuation levels may enter bubble territory The network value to transaction ratio (NVT) of XRP surged to 127.95 within 24 hours, an increase of 39.47%. This metric measures the deviation between on-chain activity and market capitalization; excessively high values often indicate that the current price is far above actual usage demand, potentially signaling overheating in short-term speculation. Historically, high NVT values have often indicated the formation of a temporary peak.

Bullish sentiment is high, derivative leverage risk is rising CEX data shows that the long-short ratio of XRP has reached 4.22, with approximately 80.86% of positions being long. This extreme tilt often occurs when market sentiment is highly optimistic, and if the price loses momentum, it could trigger a large-scale liquidation, resulting in a waterfall decline.

In addition, the XRP position-weighted funding rate surged to +0.0186%, a new high in recent months, indicating that bulls are paying a high premium to maintain their positions. While this funding structure reflects increased confidence, it also means that the risk of a pullback is rising.

The technical aspect faces key resistance, will the breakthrough at $3.03 become the focus? The current price of XRP is $2.95, just a step away from strong resistance at $3.03. This area has previously triggered strong pullbacks several times. The daily RSI has risen to 80.67, entering the seriously overbought zone. If the price cannot effectively break through, the pullback support levels are at $2.71 and $2.58, respectively.

If it successfully breaks through $3.03 with increased volume, it may initiate a new round of upward trend, with the target possibly pointing to a higher range. However, the premise is that the bulls need to maintain a resonance of trading volume and confidence.

Conclusion The current rise in XRP is supported by strong bullish sentiment and derivatives leverage, but on-chain data such as the surge in NVT, overbought RSI, and soaring funding rates collectively pose potential risks. $3.03 is a key level that will determine the direction of the market; if this breakout fails, the risk of a pullback will be significant. Investors are advised to closely monitor trading volume and Whale behavior to cope with potential high volatility ranges.