Bitcoin treasury can be compared to the dot-com bubble with 11 trillion USD.

The silent rally of Bitcoin in recent times is drawing attention from Wall Street and global investors. However, some veteran voices in the community, such as American HODL, warn that what we are witnessing is only "the calm before the storm."

Bitcoin treasury bubble hypothesis

According to this hypothesis, in the coming years, a massive wave of capital from corporations, financial institutions, and even governments – potentially reaching up to 11 trillion USD – will flow into Bitcoin. Some forecasts suggest that the "madness" will not truly arrive until 2026 or later, and by then the price could hit 1 million USD per coin.

The Swan Bitcoin exchange has thoroughly analyzed this hypothesis, from signals, operational mechanisms to real-world examples – showing that the Bitcoin treasury bubble could completely replicate the wildest period of the dot-com bubble.

From an asset of 2.4 trillion USD to corporate standards

This month, Bitcoin reached a new historical peak by surpassing the $120,000 mark, bringing the market capitalization to $2.4 trillion – only behind Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and gold.

It is noteworthy that the current rally is not accompanied by the public excitement seen in previous cycles. The price is rising steadily and sustainably, primarily due to strong capital inflows from corporations and financial institutions. Swan noted:

"This is the least exciting bullish market ever... and that is an extremely positive signal."

Many listed companies – from Strategy, Metaplanet, GameStop to Trump Media – are incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets. Some new models, such as Strive Asset Management, are even pioneering the conversion of cash reserves into Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and for long-term holding.

The USD weakens and confidence in safe-haven assets wavers

JPMorgan CEO, Jamie Dimon, recently warned that if the U.S. does not control its national debt, the role of the USD as a global reserve asset could be threatened. He said:

"I don't know whether the crisis will come in 6 months or 6 years, but I hope we will change course before it's too late."

It is expected that in the fiscal year 2025, the interest expense of the US government will reach 952 billion USD. In this context, the story of Bitcoin as "digital gold" becomes even more convincing.

BlackRock CEO, Larry Fink, also shares this view:

"If the US cannot control its debt and the budget deficit continues to swell, the position of the USD may be replaced by digital assets like Bitcoin."

The national debt of the United States has surpassed 36 trillion USD this year, a record high in history.

The return of "cheap money"

The bond market is pricing in that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates, possibly as early as 2026. Low interest rates mean cheap money, a higher risk appetite – and history shows that this always boosts asset prices, including Bitcoin. Swan commented:

"Bitcoin has risen from 42,000 USD to 123,000 USD during the tightest monetary policy period in modern history. So what will happen when the 'money flood' returns?"

Recalling the COVID-19 period, when interest rate cuts led to sharp rallies in the crypto market, especially Bitcoin. A similar cycle may be ahead.

The mechanism of forming Bitcoin treasury bubbles

According to Swan, the "big players" are still in the preparation phase - finalizing legal structures, mergers, and investment trusts. Names like Nakamoto, Twenty One Capital, Strive Asset Management have not yet fully deployed their capital, but are ready to roll out investments worth billions of USD.

Through "drip-buying" strategies (drip-buying), Bitcoin is gradually being absorbed into corporate treasuries without causing immediate price spikes. However, when enough boards of directors and countries start to simultaneously hit the "buy" button, prices may enter a "reflex" phase – when the buying actions of one party trigger chain buying actions from other parties, similar to the tech stock buying frenzy of the late 90s.

At that time, just like in 1999 – every company needed an "internet story" to survive – in the future, businesses may be pressured to have a "Bitcoin strategy." This phenomenon of "story contagion" could push prices to unimaginable levels.

If those who correctly chose technology stocks in the 90s like Microsoft, Apple, or Amazon, all of them would have made hundreds, even thousands of times their investment by now.

Bitcoin 1 million USD – is a scenario forming?

American HODL believes that:

“The corporate treasury bubble could be as large as the dot-com era. We might witness a rally lasting 3-4 years, pushing the price of Bitcoin above 1 million USD.”

This forecast is not alone. Arthur Hayes and Mark Moss – long-time Bitcoin advocates – also target a price of 1 million USD before 2030.

So are we in the early stages of a bubble as large as the dot-com? Everything is slowly coming together. The frenzy may not have arrived just yet, but if history repeats itself, this wave's peak will leave many in shock.

• The dot-com bubble began to form in the mid-1990s, when internet-related technology companies, known as "dot-coms," rushed to list on the stock exchange. The market capitalization of the Nasdaq Composite Index – which is home to many technology stocks – soared from about 1,000 points in 1995 to a peak of nearly 5,050 points in March 2000, equivalent to an increase of over 400% in just 5 years.

During the peak period, internet companies raised billions of USD in capital despite not generating clear revenue. A typical example is Pets.com – a famous startup at the time – which was once valued at over 300 million USD, but went bankrupt just 9 months after its IPO.

By 2002, after the bubble burst, Nasdaq lost more than 78% of its value compared to its peak, wiping out trillions of USD from the market. A multitude of dot-com companies disappeared completely, with only a few like Amazon and eBay surviving and thriving afterwards.

Thạch Sanh