SUI Price Prediction: 44 million Tokens to be unlocked soon, could it trigger profit-taking?

SUI (SUI) Token surged 38% this month, currently priced at $3.85. The on-chain activity (TVL surpassing 2.2 billion) and the ecological fundamentals support the rise. However, at midnight UTC on August 1, 44 million SUI (approximately $128 million) will be unlocked, accounting for 1.27% of the circulating supply. Although the unlocking ratio is limited, combined with derivation data (open interest down 1.3%) and a slight dip in volume, market caution is rising. The technical aspect shows a neutral consolidation, and in the short term, a breakout above the $3.87 moving average resistance is needed to regain momentum; if it falls below $3.75, it may dip to the key support at $3.50.

1. Strong Fundamentals: TVL and DEX volume surge

As of the time of writing, the trading price of Sui (SUI) is $3.85, with a cumulative rise of 38% over the past month. This round of increase is attributed to the surge in on-chain activity and solid ecological fundamentals support.

• TVL breaks 2.2 billion USD: According to DefiLlama data, the current total value locked (TVL) in the network has reached 2.2 billion USD, a significant increase from 1.7 billion USD at the beginning of July.
• DEX volume nearly doubled: In July, the monthly trading volume of decentralized exchanges (DEX) surged to $14.3 billion, nearly doubling from $8.1 billion in June.
• Stablecoin Market Cap Exceeds 1 Billion: The adoption of stablecoins on the Sui chain continues to rise, with its total market cap recently surpassing the 1 billion USD mark, indicating an increased trust in the DeFi ecosystem of the chain.

2. Unlock Countdown: 44 million SUI may trigger selling pressure

Despite the positive momentum, the market focus has shifted to the upcoming large-scale Token Unlocks event. Token Unlocks data shows:

• Unlock Time: UTC time August 1st, midnight
• **Unlocked Amount: ** 44 million SUI Tokens
• Unlocking Value: Approximately $128 million
• Circulating Supply Ratio: Approximately 1.27%
• Current Circulating Status: Currently, only 35% of the total SUI supply is in circulation.

Although the unlocking ratio seems low, after a significant price rise, the new Circulating Supply may prompt some holders to choose to take profits.

3. Market sentiment turns cautious: Derivation signals show divergence

There are signs of a slight slowdown in market activity:

• Spot trading volume: Decreased by 2% in the past 24 hours to $1.54 billion.
• Derivation Data (Coinglass):
  • Open Interest decreases by 1.3%
  • Futures trading volume rose by 2.2%

This differentiation (decline in volume, rise in futures) suggests that traders are becoming more cautious with a lower risk appetite on the eve of unlocking.

IV. Technical Analysis: Neutral Consolidation, Key Levels Determine Direction

(SUI daily chart | Source: crypto. news)

SUI seems to have entered a consolidation phase:

• Momentum Indicator Neutral:
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about 54, in the neutral zone, with no strong buying or selling pressure.
  • The Stochastic Oscillator and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are also in the neutral zone, reflecting market uncertainty.
• Moving Average Resistance: The price hovers below the short-term moving average, forming resistance:
  • 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA):$3.88
  • 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA):$3.87
• Potential Upside: If the bulls can break through the above moving average resistance with volume and reclaim the $4.00 level, there is a likelihood of retesting recent highs.
• Downward Risk:
  • The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned bearish, and the momentum is slightly negative.
  • If the price falls below $3.75, a strong support is located at $3.50 (coinciding with the lower edge of the fluctuation range over the past 7 days).
  • If $3.50 is breached, it may further dip to $3.30.

Conclusion: The impressive performance of Sui ecosystem data provides strong support for its coin price, but the upcoming large-scale token unlocking event has become the biggest variable in the short term. The market has shown a cautious stance, and the technical aspect presents a neutral consolidation pattern. Investors need to closely monitor the defense of the $3.87 moving average resistance and the $3.75 support level. The market's ability to digest the newly unlocked circulating supply will determine whether SUI can continue its rise or enter a phase of adjustment. The results of the Unlock Selling Pressure and On-chain Fundamentals game will be key to the next stage of the trend.