Is the bull run climax coming? On-chain data shows: the top is still on the way.

Written by: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Compilation: Vernacular Blockchain

Original Title: On-chain Data Analysis: Where Could Bitcoin's Peak Be This Cycle?

As Bitcoin shows an unprecedented bullish momentum, an inevitable question arises: How high can the price of Bitcoin (BTC) actually rise in this market cycle? This article will explore a range of on-chain valuation models and cycle timing tools to determine potential peak price targets for Bitcoin. Although predictions can never replace a data-driven flexible response, these analytical frameworks can help us better understand the current market position and possible future directions.

Price Prediction Tool

First, let's take a look at the free price prediction tools provided by "Bitcoin Magazine Pro Edition", which aggregate several historically accurate valuation models. While data-driven responses are generally more effective than blindly predicting prices, studying these indicators can still provide a strong contextual reference for market behavior. When macroeconomic factors, derivatives, and on-chain data start to send warning signals, it is often a good time to take profits, regardless of whether a specific price target has been reached. Nevertheless, exploring these valuation tools remains instructive and can assist strategic decision-making when combined with broader market analysis.

Figure 1: Use price prediction tools to calculate potential cycle tops

Key models include the following types:

Top Market Cap (Top Cap): Predicts peak valuation by multiplying historical average market cap by 35. This model accurately predicted the peak in 2017 but failed to accurately predict the 2020-2021 cycle, expecting over $200,000, while Bitcoin's actual peak was about $69,000. Currently, the model predicts over $500,000, which feels increasingly unrealistic.

Delta Top (: Generates a more grounded prediction by subtracting the average market value from the realized market cap ) based on the cost basis of all circulating BTC (. This model predicted a top of $80,000 to $100,000 in the previous cycle.

Terminal Price ): Based on the supply-adjusted Coin Days Destroyed ( calculation, it is the model closest to historical peaks, including the $64,000 top in 2021. The current prediction is around $221,000, which could rise to $250,000 or higher, considered the most credible model for predicting macro Bitcoin tops. More details about these indicators and their calculation logic can be found below the charts on the website.

)# Peak Prediction

Another powerful indicator is the MVRV ratio, which compares the market capitalization to the realized market capitalization, providing a window into the psychology of investors. The ratio, which typically peaks around 4 in the main cycle, is currently at 2.34, suggesting that there is still significant upside. Historically, when MVRV is close to 3.5 to 4, long-term holders begin to realize significant gains, often marking the maturity of the cycle. However, due to diminishing returns, we may not be able to reach a full 4 this cycle. Using a more conservative 3.5 estimate, we can begin to predict a more realistic peak.

Figure 2: The MVRV ratio view predicts that there is still further growth potential in the cycle, reaching a historical target value of 4+ or even a more conservative target of 3.5.

Calculate Target Price

Timing is just as important as valuation. By analyzing the "BTC growth since the cycle low", we find that the previous Bitcoin cycles peaked at about 1060 days from the low. We are currently at about 930 days in this cycle. If this pattern continues, the peak may come in about 130 days. Historically, FOMO( fear of missing out on )-driven price increases typically occurred at the end of the cycle, resulting in a rapid rise in the realized price ### proxy measure of the average cost base for investors (. For example, in the last 130 days of 2017, the realized price increased by 260%; That's a 130% increase in 2021. Assuming that the growth rate is halved again due to diminishing returns, it could increase by 65% from the current realized price of $47,000 to about $78,000 by October 18.

![On-chain Data Analysis: Where Might Bitcoin's Peak Be This Cycle?])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-eff63034551451913d66e122f7e2209b(

Figure 3: Based on the peak velocity of previous cycles, the current cycle is far from over

Combining the projected price of $78,000 and a conservative 3.5 MVRV target, we derive a potential price peak for Bitcoin of $273,000. While this seems ambitious, historical parabolic surges suggest that such a trend could occur in weeks rather than months. Although the expected peak is more likely to be between $150,000 and $200,000, mathematical and on-chain evidence indicates that higher valuations are at least possible. It is worth noting that these models dynamically adjust, and if market frenzy intensifies towards the end of the cycle, predictions may accelerate further.

![On-chain Data Analysis: Where Could Bitcoin's Peak Be in This Cycle?])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-482b26026d4f82b858a75eec3b6a7092(

Figure 4: Predicting the peak of this cycle by combining the expected realization price and possible MVRV targets.

) Conclusion

Predicting the exact peak of Bitcoin is inherently uncertain, and there are too many variables to fully consider. What we can do is build a probabilistic framework based on historical precedents and on-chain data. Tools such as MVRV ratios, terminal prices, and Delta apex have proven their worth in predicting market tops many times. While the $273,000 target may seem optimistic, it is rooted in historical patterns, current network behavior, and cyclical timing logic. Ultimately, the best strategy is to react based on data rather than fixed price levels. Use these tools to refine your investment assumptions, but be flexible enough to profit in time when the broader ecosystem starts signaling a top.