Matrixport: The technical support for Bitcoin is solid, and the Federal Reserve's shift to a dovish tone provides moderate upward support.

On June 27, Matrixport released a weekly report stating that Powell signaled a hawkish stance at the FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, but within a week, the overall tone of the Federal Reserve had clearly turned dovish, with several governors expressing accommodative views. Powell also appeared more conciliatory during his congressional hearing this week. This shift may be influenced by political pressure, as President Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve's tightening stance shortly after the meeting, forcing the Fed to quickly adjust its external rhetoric. Inflation has fallen to 2.38%, just a step away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and the justification for maintaining the current stance is gradually weakening. Last Friday, Governor Waller hinted that the July FOMC meeting might discuss interest rate cuts, and on Monday, Governor Bowman expressed the same view. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee further downplayed the inflation impact of tariffs, reinforcing market expectations of a "dovish turn" by the Fed. Although Powell and some economists previously warned that tariffs could push inflation back above 3%, this has yet to materialize. The unemployment rate has also remained at 4.2% for nearly 12 consecutive months, contrary to earlier expectations of a softening job market. Powell did not refute dovish comments, stating that as long as inflation remains moderate, the timing for interest rate cuts might be brought forward. Although the probability of a rate cut in July is still low, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will signal potential policy adjustments for September at the meeting on July 30. Considering that most corporate buybacks in July are paused, the earnings season could become one of the key variables driving market sentiment. Earlier this week, after the U.S. military airstrike in Iran, Bitcoin briefly dipped to the 21-week moving average (, which is both a key technical support level and a dividing line for bulls and bears. If the price cannot promptly return above the moving average, the market may face adjustment risks in the summer. Maintaining the "seasonal range oscillation" benchmark and expecting the dovish tone from the Fed to continue providing moderate upward support for Bitcoin, if subsequent signals for rate cuts become clearer, the risk-reward ratio for buying on dips is expected to improve further.