The changes in financial policy have intensified market uncertainty, and Bitcoin is facing a critical moment.

Market Observation

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is at a complex crossroads. Chairman Powell stated that the Fed might have already cut interest rates if not for the tariff plan potentially undermining inflation control achievements. While he kept all possibilities open for the July interest rate decision, his remarks suggest that policy flexibility is increasing, and if employment data weakens in the future, the threshold for rate cuts may be lowered. At the same time, the U.S. government's fiscal policy has also introduced new variables, with the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passing the Senate by a narrow margin, and the House of Representatives set to debate and vote on it on Wednesday. The bill's content has far-reaching implications, planning to cut taxes, reduce social spending, while increasing military and immigration enforcement budgets, and is expected to add up to $3.3 trillion in national debt over the next decade. In terms of trade, the president has taken a hardline stance, clearly stating that he will not delay the tariff deadline of July 9, and has targeted Japan as a pressure point, exacerbating tensions and uncertainties in global markets. Notably, due to the Independence Day holiday, U.S. stock markets will close early at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4, remaining closed all day on July 4, as the market enters a brief period of silence ahead of the policy storm.

On the occasion of the 28th anniversary of Hong Kong's return, the first licensed virtual asset exchange's offline experience booth was unveiled at the West Kowloon High-Speed Railway Station, providing the public with convenient service channels and experiences. The chief analyst of a certain exchange stated that the development of Web3 is not only a technological iteration but also a reshaping of efficiency and trust paradigms. The year 2025 is seen as an important milestone for Hong Kong to restart with digital sovereignty and institutional innovation. Against the backdrop of accelerating trends in on-chain efficiency enhancement and the institutionalization of digital assets, Hong Kong is considered to play a leading role in the global new financial order.

Bitcoin fell to $105,000 this morning. An analyst from a trading platform pointed out that the upward momentum of Bitcoin has shown signs of weakening for the first time, possibly entering a consolidation phase or a local peak. Meanwhile, the decline in spot trading volume and an increase in profit-taking activities have made the short-term holder cost price of $98,700 a key support level. Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically performs weakly in the third quarter, with an average return rate of 6%. It is expected that future price volatility will further decrease, and the trend may continue to oscillate within a range. Statistics from a data platform indicate that over the past decade, Bitcoin has recorded increases in seven Julys, with an average increase of 9.1%. Historical data supports the market's expectation of challenging the $116,000 level. However, relatively pessimistic analysts warn that a true sell-off has not yet begun. They predict that the price of Bitcoin may fall below $100,000 to the range of $92,000 - $93,000. If it falls further, it could reach a potential bottom of $60,000 - $70,000. They also pointed out that if this trend materializes, altcoins may face a further decline risk of 50% - 80%.

The on-chain market has remained relatively quiet recently, with no popular fast transactions. The prices of $USELESS and $STARTUP have both reached all-time highs. However, a recent surge in stocks being linked to the blockchain by a certain trading platform has brought some highlights. The stock price of the trading platform hit an all-time high of $99.18 yesterday, which also revived the Meme coin stockcoin on the Solana chain, with its market cap soaring from $14,000 to $4.4 million in just three days, an increase of 1400% within 24 hours.

Key Data ( as of July 2, 12:00 HKT )

• Bitcoin: $106,465 ( Year-to-date +13.8% ), Daily Spot Trading Volume $26.059 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.94 ( Year-to-date -26.88% ), daily spot trading volume is $14.38 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 63( Greed )
• Average GAS:BTC:2 sat/vB ETH:0.7 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour trading volume ranking on a trading platform: STMX, XRP, CBK, Bitcoin, PENGU
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.1186
• Sector fluctuations: AI sector down 4.48%; RWA sector down 4.72%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 100,830 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 256 million USD. The liquidation amount for BTC was 77.6394 million USD, for ETH it was 56.1918 million USD, and for SOL it was 13.8666 million USD.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (107151.13 USD ), Lower Channel Line (105029.32 USD )
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2467.39 USD ), lower channel line (2418.53 USD )

ETF Flow ( as of July 1 )

• Bitcoin ETF: -342 million ( consecutive 15 days of net inflow ended )
• Ethereum ETF: +$40,679,800 ( continuous net inflow for 3 days )

Today's Outlook

Due to the Independence Day in the United States, the US stock market will close 3 hours early on July 3rd, (, which is at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4th, ); the market will be closed all day on July 4th.

• A trading platform will launch Echo Protocol on July 2nd (ECHO)
• A trading platform has launched Wormhole (W)
• Rex-Osprey Solana Staking ETF is expected to launch on July 2.
• A trading platform will delist the USDT perpetual contract trading pairs for NC, SLERF, KNC, and ALPHAd at 4 PM on July 4th.
• The ADP employment number for the US in June is ( million ): Previous value 3.7, expected 9.5(7, February 2, 20:15)
• US June unemployment rate: Previous value 4.2%, Expected 4.3%(7 July 3 20:30)
• U.S. June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls ( people ): Previous value 13.9, Expected 11(7 July 3rd 20:30 0192837465657483921
• Ethena)ENA( will unlock approximately 40.6 million tokens at 3 PM on July 2, which is 0.67% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 10.7 million USD.

Top 500 largest market cap gains today: Humanity Protocol )H( up 106.52%, Cobak Token )CBK( up 50.90%, Useless Coin )USELESS( up 24.89%, Quantum Resistant Ledger )QRL( up 17.70%, Aleo )ALEO( up 16.68%.

![Can the 9.1% historical rise of Bitcoin in July reappear? Focus on the "Big and Beautiful" bill landing before the US stock market closes | HashKey Trading Moment])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-ccd413cde750c6beb34f7dc2eb0d5263.webp(

Hot News

• The publicly listed cannabis company Dogecoin Cash Inc. has established a subsidiary to build a DOGE treasury and related businesses.
• A trading platform will launch CROSS)CROSS(
• London-listed company Anemoi has increased its Bitcoin investment ratio from 30% to approximately 40%.
• Analysis: The average increase of Bitcoin in July is 9.1%, and it may challenge the $116,000 mark in the coming weeks.
• Author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad": bought another BTC, believing that Bitcoin will one day reach 1 million dollars.
• Linghang Pharmaceutical Biotechnology plans to acquire all shares of Conflux to expand in the blockchain field, and two founding members of Conflux are its executive directors.
• The Japanese game company CyberStep plans to invest 1 billion yen in cryptocurrency investments, using BTC and ETH for corporate asset reserves.
• Analysis from a trading platform: BTC typically performs weakly in Q3, with an average return rate of 6%.
• Nasdaq-listed company LGHL has accumulated $5 million worth of HYPE, SOL, and SUI.
• The Move Foundation reserve wallet received 45 million $MOVE from a certain trading platform, currently holding 168 million coins.
• Trusta.AI announces the $TA token economic model, with 3% allocated for airdrops.
• The Trump family's related cryptocurrency project American Bitcoin raised $220 million for Bitcoin mining.
• Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September and to lower them three times consecutively.
• The Katana mainnet is officially launched, and a 1 billion KAT token incentive program is initiated.
• Circle applies for a U.S. banking license to custody USDC reserves
• A certain trading platform plans to launch its own blockchain and introduce "stock tokens" in the EU.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary: Legislation on stablecoins may be completed by mid-July
• BitMine announced a private placement of $250 million and launched an Ethereum financial strategy.
• JPMorgan gives Circle a "reduce" rating, setting the target price at $80 by the end of 2026.