Crypto Market Insights: Bitcoin Breaks Through 110,000, Ether Approaches Key Resistance Level

Market Observation

The United States has extended the tariff suspension period to August 1, but has once again threatened to increase taxes on imported goods from major trading partners, raising market concerns about the final tariff levels. The tariffs currently in effect amount to a tax of 1.5% of GDP on U.S. importers, with annual tariff revenue exceeding $300 billion. Its lagging effect on inflation is expected to be reflected in the July CPI data released in August. This delay is due to corporate inventory buffering, slow price transmission of intermediate goods, and the bi-monthly sampling mechanism of the CPI. Historical experience shows that a 10% general tariff takes 2-3 months to fully reflect in the price index.

In terms of interest rate policy, the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma: while the one-year inflation expectation has fallen to 3%, pressures from components such as medical costs and college tuition remain significant. At the same time, the labor market is showing conflicting signals; concerns about unemployment have eased, but the difficulty of re-employment has increased.

With the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" set to take effect in August, the market is filled with anticipation for the compliance dividends brought by the clarified regulatory framework. An analyst pointed out that some Hong Kong stock stablecoin concept stocks have doubled recently, reflecting strong market expectations. The regulatory framework will cover core requirements such as anti-money laundering and reserve auditing, and the first batch of licenses planned to be issued this year may reshape the industry competition landscape. However, for stablecoins to disrupt the traditional payment system, they still need to overcome three major obstacles: the profit distribution mechanism between financial institutions and tech companies, the challenge of cross-border regulatory coordination, and the stress testing of systemic risks under extreme market conditions.

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a critical technical breakthrough and cycle verification phase, with both bulls and bears fiercely battling around $110,000. If the price cannot break through this resistance level, it may quickly fall back to $100,000; conversely, it could aim for $120,000. Some analysts, combining the trends of M2 money supply, believe that Bitcoin's next phase may rise to the range of $120,000 to $125,000. From a longer time frame, the peak of this bull market may occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025.

Regarding Ethereum, after breaking above $2600, it is approaching the triangle resistance level at $2630. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in trading volume to confirm the trend. The market's optimistic sentiment towards Ethereum is also transmitted to stocks holding related tokens, with several associated listed companies experiencing significant stock price increases.

In the altcoin market, a certain DEX announced the migration of trading on Arbitrum to another network, gradually phasing out the native token, which led to a 60% drop in the token within 24 hours. Although the token conflict within a certain ecosystem continues, the related tokens experienced a pullback of over 30%, indicating that the market currently lacks a sustainable new narrative.

Key Data (as of July 9, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $108,513 (Year-to-date +15.99%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $21.324 billion
• Ethereum: $2,600.10 (Year-to-date -22.06%), daily spot trading volume is $15.521 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 67 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 0.52 sat/vB, ETH: 0.3 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.2%, ETH 9.3%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9728
• Sector performance: DeFi sector increased by 2.89%; L2 sector increased by 2.78%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 59,563 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 121 million USD, among which BTC liquidations amounted to 22.3 million USD, ETH liquidations to 34.98 million USD, and MAGIC liquidations to 5.35 million USD.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (108964.14 USD), lower channel line (106806.44 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2545.01 USD), lower channel line (2494.61 USD)

ETF Flows (As of July 8)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$80.08 million, continued 4-day net inflow
• Ethereum ETF: +46.6308 million USD, continuing 3 days of net inflow

Today's Outlook

• The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting (July 10, 02:00)
• In 2025, FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy (July 10, 21:00)
• The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 5 is expected to be 235,000 (July 10, 20:30)

Top 500 Market Cap Largest Gains

1. Treasure (MAGIC) up 46.05%
2. Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) increased by 31.92%
3. Zebec Network (ZBCN) increased by 16.77%
4. Cronos (CRO) increased by 16.70%
5. VVS Finance (VVS) rose by 15.75%

Hot News

• A well-known investment institution has liquidated its COMP holdings and today transferred another 400,000 COMP to the trading platform.
• A certain stablecoin issuer holds $8 billion worth of gold in a secret vault in Switzerland.
• World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs increased by $38 billion in the first half of the year, with daily trading volume setting a half-year record.
• A publicly listed company purchased 7,689 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to over 200,000 coins and earning 322 Ethereum staking rewards.
• Hong Kong-listed company Jin Yong Investment saw a maximum increase of over 600%, having previously announced a stablecoin collaboration with a certain company.
• "Yiwu merchants start accepting stablecoins" ranked 4th on Baidu's hot search list.
• The number of addresses holding a certain token is about to exceed 1 million, at which point 1 trillion tokens will be burned.
• The publicly listed real estate company Murano plans to establish a Bitcoin reserve through a $500 million equity transaction.
• A listed company sold 280 Bitcoins and used the proceeds to purchase Ether.
• Public company GameSquare raises $8 million to launch Ethereum fund management strategy