Bitcoin is fluctuating at a high level, with the Hong Kong stablecoin license expected to be distributed as early as the beginning of next year.

A. Market Viewpoints

1. Macroeconomic Liquidity

The liquidity of the currency shows signs of improvement. The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for five consecutive times, keeping the target range at 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed Chairman did not give a clear signal regarding a rate cut in September, emphasizing that inflation risks still exist, while also pointing out the stability of the employment situation. These remarks dampened market expectations for a rate cut within the year. The dollar index reached a two-month high, and US stocks continued to rise to historical highs. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market performed relatively weak.

2. Market Overview

This week, Bitcoin has been fluctuating at a high level, while altcoins have performed poorly overall, with most cryptocurrencies and stocks experiencing significant declines. The market is mainly focused on projects related to the Ethereum ecosystem.

Among the top 300 by market capitalization, the five projects with the largest increase are LOKA (300%), ZORA (60%), ZBCN (50%), KTA (40%), and REKT (40%). The five projects with the largest decrease are TKX (60%), FARTCOIN (30%), M (30%), VIRTUAL (20%), and GRASS (20%).

It is worth noting that ZORA, as a socialfi project, has partnered with a certain public chain application, and its bottom has accumulated a 10-fold increase. The two stablecoins of the ENA project continue to generate profits and are being continuously purchased through its US stock investment entity. In addition, ENA has partnered with a certain lending protocol to release USDE revolving loans. CFX, as a domestically compliant public chain, benefits from the news that Hong Kong plans to issue stablecoin licenses in September.

3. On-chain Data

Bitcoin liquidity is facing challenges. An early whale sold over 80,000 bitcoins through over-the-counter trading, with a total transaction amount close to $10 billion. Nevertheless, the market has effectively absorbed this selling pressure, and currently, 97% of the circulating supply remains in profit.

The supply of stablecoins has slightly increased by 1%. Institutional funds continue to flow in net, with Ethereum driving a surge in inflows, which have exceeded last year's total inflow amount this year.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-Z Score is currently at 2.6, close to the middle range. This indicator is based on the total cost of the market and reflects the overall profitability. When the indicator is above 6, it indicates a top range, and when it is below 2, it indicates a bottom range. If MVRV falls below the key level of 1, it indicates that holders are generally in a state of loss.

Four, Futures Market

The funding rate for this period remains at a normal level of 0.01%. A rate between 0.05% and 0.1% indicates a high leverage from bulls, which may suggest a short-term market top; a rate between -0.1% and 0% indicates a high leverage from bears, which may suggest a short-term market bottom.

The open interest in Bitcoin futures has started to decline. The futures long-short ratio is 1.1, indicating that market sentiment is neutral. Generally, retail sentiment is seen as a contrarian indicator; below 0.7 indicates fear, while above 2.0 indicates greed. However, it is important to note that the long-short ratio data is quite volatile, which reduces its reference value.

5. Spot Market

This week, the price of Bitcoin has dropped, but the exchange rate of Ethereum against Bitcoin remains strong. A few small-cap tokens related to the concept of stablecoins are leading the charge. The market rotation is gradually shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other altcoins, and it is expected that risks may gradually accumulate in the later stages.

B. Stablecoins and RWA

1. Stablecoin Sector

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has stated that the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses may be issued in early next year. In the initial phase, the identity of holders of compliant stablecoins in Hong Kong will need to undergo real-name verification. The Deputy Chief Executive of the Monetary Authority emphasized that the threshold for obtaining a license is very high, and entering the "sandbox testing" does not necessarily mean that a license will be granted. The Monetary Authority is open to the types of fiat currencies that stablecoins can be pegged to, and applicants can choose a single fiat currency or a basket of fiat currencies as the pegged object.

A blockchain division under a certain e-commerce giant has registered the trademarks "JCOIN" and "JOYCOIN", and the market speculates that these could be the names of its stablecoins. The registration details indicate that the related services include providing electronic funds transfers and cryptocurrency financial transactions through blockchain technology. The company is one of the participants in the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's stablecoin issuer sandbox program and has previously collaborated with a certain bank to test a stablecoin-based enterprise cross-border payment solution.

A payment giant announced the launch of a new payment feature in the U.S. market, allowing small merchants to accept payments in over 100 different cryptocurrencies, including mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This move significantly expands the company's service offerings in the cryptocurrency payment space and is expected to encourage more merchants to engage in digital currency transactions.

WLFI announced a strategic investment of $10 million in Falcon Finance. Falcon Finance is a synthetic dollar stablecoin project, and its stablecoin USDf has a circulation of over $1 billion. Users can mint USDf using various assets as collateral, including mainstream stablecoins, cryptocurrencies, and tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds.

Section II: RWA Sector

The Digital Assets Working Group of the White House has released an important policy report that puts forward several core recommendations, including requiring regulatory agencies to clarify the regulatory rules for crypto assets, promoting relevant legislation, supporting blockchain tokenized securities, and opposing the issuance of a central bank digital currency in the United States.

The Hong Kong government has released the "2025 Digital Asset Policy Statement", confirming Hong Kong's commitment to becoming a global hub for digital asset innovation. Hong Kong has launched a licensing system for virtual asset trading platforms and will implement stablecoin regulations on August 1. The government is advancing the draft for virtual asset trading and custody licenses and has established a regulatory sandbox mechanism to encourage the testing of innovative technologies such as blockchain, AI, and tokenized assets.

A large Japanese bank has acquired a high-rise office building in Osaka for approximately $680 million, planning to tokenize the asset using blockchain technology and issue digital securities. Institutional investors mainly participate through private REITs, while ordinary retail investors can purchase tokenized shares for fractional ownership through specific platforms. This initiative lowers the threshold for ordinary investors to participate in high-quality commercial real estate investments, enhancing asset liquidity and market transparency.