Crypto Bear Market to Last Through 2025
Grayscale predicts that the crypto assets bear market may last until the end of 2025 based on the theory of extended cycles. Data shows that the current cycle has lasted over 1,700 days, while the previous average cycle was 1,275 days. Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet returned to its all-time high. Analysis indicates that despite low volatility, institutional investors continue to accumulate, and the downward cycle pattern shows an unprecedented 710+ day peak-to-trough period. The extended bear market aligns with the maturity of the crypto market, as realized prices remain below market prices, creating longer accumulation opportunities.
Latest developments in 2025
The Bear Market that began in January seems to be continuing into June, confirming Grayscale’s earlier predictions about the length of the cycle. Market data shows that Bitcoin is still below its previous all-time high, with the realized price lagging behind the market price.
Key developments observed in 2025:
- The current cycle length has reached approximately 1,700 days, significantly exceeding the average level of 1,275 days determined in previous cycles.
- Trading volume remains sluggish, and volatility indicators are at their lowest point in years.
- Despite long-term price fluctuations, institutional accumulation continues.
Platform analysis indicates that this prolonged Bear Market is consistent with the mature patterns observed in traditional markets. As predicted, each successive crypto cycle has shown longer intervals between peaks, with the current cycle exhibiting the longest trough phase on record.
| Cycle | Days from Peak to Trough | Total cycle length |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 423 | 1,007 |
| 2016 | 364 | 1,150 |
| 2020 | 518 | 1,470 |
| Current | 710+ | 1,700+ |
The prolonged Bear Market period has provided an unprecedented accumulation opportunity, as the time during which the realized price remains below the market price is longer than in any previous cycle. Investors using a dollar-cost averaging strategy during this time may benefit when market sentiment eventually shifts, as historical patterns indicate that all previous Bear Markets ultimately ended with new market highs.
Crypto Assets Bear Market may last another 8 months
[TL; DR]
The crypto market cycle consists of two major trends: Bear Market and Bull Market.
A Bear Market is a period in which the price of Crypto Assets falls by at least 20% from its previous high.
The crypto assets bear market begins when the actual price is lower than the market price.
In the current encryption market cycle, the Bear Market began on July 12, when the actual price was below the market price.
Introduction
The crypto assets market usually creates uncertainty during economic recessions and booms, resulting in massive profits or huge losses. Investors who track market dynamics often follow some outstanding projects. Therefore, if they want to alleviate anxiety and enhance confidence in crypto assets and other digital assets, they should understand the trends and movements related to the market. Generally speaking, most people working in the blockchain industry should be aware of the trends and events occurring in the crypto market. For example, digital entrepreneurs need to study the cycles of crypto assets. This is because crypto assets experience cycles similar to recessions and booms, namely the so-called Bear Market and Bull Market. This article outlines the current Bear Market situation.
What is a Bear Market?
A Bear Market indicates insufficient market confidence, leading to a decline in stock prices as investors rush to sell. Typically, a stock market drop of over 20% is referred to as a Bear Market. The term Bear Market originates from the English term “bear market,” and in Chinese, the phenomenon of a market crash is also referred to as a “short market.” A Bear Market can last for several months or years, with the duration depending on the prevailing market dynamics. A prolonged Bear Market cycle may be caused by the continued low confidence in the Crypto Assets industry.
In most cases, each Bear Market is triggered by a factor such as war, hacking incidents, or government regulations. Changes in macroeconomic variables like interest rates can also lead to a Bear Market. When Crypto Assets enter a Bear Market cycle, some investors may panic and sell off their assets in large quantities, while others may choose to hold onto their assets in light of their wealth changes. Low trading volumes, poor investor confidence, and high supply of Crypto Assets compared to their demand are key signs of an impending Bear Market. The chart below shows the performance of market prices during such a market cycle.
As you can see, during the Bear Market cycle, prices generally show a downward trend, with possible short-term fluctuations.
Understand the Crypto Assets market cycles
Similar to the behavior of traditional asset markets, the cryptocurrency industry also has peaks and valleys, with the difference being the duration, which depends on the reasons for the bearish market conditions. Grayscale has surveyed some market information about crypto assets, revealing details that help us understand their performance. For example, Grayscale concluded that cryptocurrency market cycles last approximately 4 years or 1275 days. Grayscale defines a cycle as a period when market prices are above actual prices. To reach some of these conclusions, the company utilized Bitcoin price To estimate the possible length of the current Bear Market, the changes indicate that it will take approximately 8 months. However, Grayscale did not take into account the actual price crossover that occurred below the market price in March 2021, as the trends during that period were mainly shaped by the market’s response to the global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Market price and actual price
Grayscale defines the actual price as “the sum of all assets at purchase price or actual market capitalization, divided by how many positions are in profit or loss.” We can express this as a formula in the following way:
Actual Price = Actual Total Market Value / Current Supply
If the market price is higher than the actual price, it means the value of the crypto assets is higher than the market price at which investors purchased the crypto assets. Conversely, if the actual price is higher than the market price, it indicates that the value of the crypto assets is lower than the price at which investors purchased that coin. When the prices of most assets are above their purchase prices, it indicates that the market is recovering from a Bear Market, and vice versa.
However, starting from June 12, the actual price fell below the market price, signaling that a Bear Market may be beginning. In other words, the average price of Bitcoin is lower than the actual price. Considering these conditions, investors have 250 days to purchase crypto assets, as the market conditions will be favorable.
The table shows the average price of BTC, the cycles, and the number of days in the previous cycle. By assessing these cycles, Grayscale observed that the length of the cycles has been increasing over the years. This helps it estimate the length of the current cycle. For example, Grayscale determined that the current cycle is taking longer to peak than the previous cycle. In 2012, the market peak occurred 603 days later. Therefore, it took 180 days longer than the previous cycle to reach its peak. Such calculations allow us to conclude that the market peak in 2016 occurred 786 days later, and the market peak in 2020 occurred 952 days later.
In 2012 and 2016, BTC took a total of 4 years to transition from peak to trough. Therefore, in the current cycle, as of July 12, we have 1198 days, which means there are still 4 months before the actual price exceeds the BTC market price.
The chart shows the cryptocurrency market cycles we have experienced since 2009. Therefore, we can easily track the current cycle.
Due to BTC being 222 days below its all-time high (ATH), there may be another 5 to 6 months of sideways or downward price volatility trend. In 2012 and 2016, BTC took another year to reach a new historical high. We can observe such trends in the chart below.
In terms of market volatility, the cycle of 2020 seems to be longer than ever. The reason may be the increasing maturity of the crypto market and the expanding scale of decentralized applications (DAPP).
According to a Grayscale survey, the main driver of the current Bear Market is leverage. After the peak of the global spread of COVID-19, governments around the world began to increase spending in this area, which initiated this leverage effect. The goal of governments is to stabilize the economies that suffered significant losses during the pandemic. In addition, the collapse of TerraUSD has exacerbated issues faced by some centralized DeFi companies that use leveraged financing. For example, lenders are forced to call in loans at the worst possible times.
However, Grayscale emphasizes that each market cycle will make the crypto assets market stronger than before. Therefore, it encourages people to buy crypto assets, as the market will ultimately welcome an upward trend.
Conclusion
In summary, the prices of BTC and other Crypto Assets may continue to decline for about 5 to 6 months. Considering this, Grayscale concludes that investors still have about 250 days as the actual prices will be below market prices. Purchase Bitcoin and other crypto assets. As of July 13, the current market cycle that started in 2020 has lasted for 1198 days. Interestingly, the cycle in 2020 is longer than the previous cycle because it has two peaks. The reason is that the current market is more developed and refined than the previous market.
