Stellar (XLM) Price Analysis: Technical Pressure Mounts

XLM, as a public chain token focused on cross-border payments and inclusive finance, has recently been caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. As of June 16, 2025, XLM price Hovering in the range of $0.25 - $0.29, with a market capitalization of approximately $8.9 billion, ranking 17th among global cryptocurrencies. It has fallen 6% in the past 24 hours, continuing a weak trend since mid-June.

Technical Analysis: Key Support Broken, Downward Risk Intensified

Recently, the performance of XLM price highlights the dominance of bears. The daily chart shows that since mid-May, it has continuously formed red Heikin Ashi candles, and the price has fallen below the key moving averages of the 20-day SMA (0.271 USD), 50-day SMA (0.281 USD), and 200-day SMA (0.333 USD), confirming a long-term bearish structure.

Fibonacci extension analysis indicates that if we calculate using the swing high of $0.30 and the low of $0.25, the 1.618 extension level points to $0.22, coinciding with the consolidation support level from March. If the bulls fail to hold this position, it could trigger a further decline of 15%-20%.

However, some analysts have found potential turning points:

• “Golden Cross” pattern appears: the 13-day moving average crosses above the 49-day moving average, suggesting a possible medium-term rebound;
• Descending wedge is brewing: If it breaks through the resistance zone of 0.28 - 0.30 USD, it may open up a channel for an upward move towards 0.50 USD or even 2.00 USD.

Fundamentals: Regulation and Cooperation are Key to Breaking the Deadlock

Despite the pressure on the technical front, substantial progress in the Stellar ecosystem may reshape the valuation logic:

1. PYUSD stablecoin integration: PayPal’s stablecoin PYUSD plans to integrate. XLM The network is currently awaiting final approval from the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS). This move will leverage Stellar’s payment infrastructure covering over 170 countries to provide near-zero cost cross-border settlements for emerging markets;
2. PayFi Financial Model: The real-time financing protocol PayFi based on Stellar aims to support small and medium-sized enterprises in obtaining on-chain operating funds with PYUSD, anchoring the utility of the token to the needs of the real economy.
3. CBDC Strategic Partnerships: Countries like Ukraine and the Bahamas are advancing Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) testing based on Stellar, strengthening its positioning as compliant financial infrastructure.

Historical Cycles and Market Sentiment

XLM is known for its high volatility, having achieved over 30 times increase (0.025 → 0.79 USD) during the bull market from 2020 to 2021. Current on-chain data shows conflicting signals:

• The exchange net outflow is 3.37 million USD, suggesting that some investors are accumulating at lower prices;
• Futures market bullish liquidation dominates: $5.52 million long positions liquidated within 24 hours, reflecting weak confidence among leveraged traders.

Short-term Outlook: Two Scenarios

• Bear Market Scenario: If it fails to reclaim $0.271 (50-day SMA), the price may test the support zone at $0.24 - $0.22;
• Bull market trigger point: Break above $0.30 accompanied by increased volume, or activate technical buying, target $0.45 (previous high 61.8% retracement level).

💡 Key Tip: At the end of June, pay close attention to the NYDFS approval results for PYUSD; a successful implementation could become a catalyst to overturn the current downturn.

Conclusion

Stellar (XLM) is at a critical juncture between technical and fundamental factors. Short-term prices are constrained by a descending channel and low market activity, but substantial progress in ecological cooperation and the first-mover advantage in regulatory compliance provide unique support for its long-term value. Investors should closely monitor the breakout direction in the $0.22 - $0.30 range, especially the verification progress of on-chain data from the PayPal partnership, as this will determine whether XLM can regain pricing power in the payment sector.