ONDO Market Analysis and 2025 Price Prediction
As of June 24, 2025, the real-time price of ONDO is $0.77, having risen 14.31% in the past 24 hours, but still down 6.08% over the past 7 days. The current price has fallen over 60% from the historical high of $2.14 in December 2024, and market sentiment shows clear divergence:
- Technical indicators are contradictory: the 14-day RSI is at 29.5, entering the oversold zone (BUY signal), but 88.24% of the 30 technical indicators are issuing bearish signals, resulting in a “technical divergence.”
- Key support level: The $0.66 – $0.67 range has become an important support for several months, having been tested multiple times in June without breaking. If this support is lost, the downward target will point to $0.45.
- Volume changes: On June 22, the trading volume reached $199 million, a monthly high, indicating intensified bulls and bears contest.
On-chain data shows that recently, 63% of large ONDO transfers are flowing to exchanges, which may indicate continued selling pressure.
Technical Analysis Deep Dive: Why is $0.90 a Key Turning Point?
According to the technical models of CoinCodex and CoinDataFlow, the short to medium-term trend of ONDO depends on whether it can break through the core moving average resistance:
- Bearish alignment of the moving average system: The 50-day SMA $0.883 and the 200-day SMA $0.909 form a “death cross,” and the price is below all major moving averages, indicating a weak long-term trend.
- Breakthrough threshold: If the daily closing price stabilizes at $0.90 (corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level), it may trigger short covering, pushing the price towards $1.20.
- Volatility Warning: The Bollinger Band width has expanded to 30%, indicating a possible directional breakout in July.
2025 Monthly Forecast: Institutions Bullish on Q4 Market
Based on the models of 10 analysis institutions, ONDO’s trend in 2025 will show a “low first, high later” pattern:
| month | Low Prediction ($) | High forecast ($) | Potential Catalysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| July | 0.60 | 0.82 | Federal Reserve interest rate decision |
| August | 0.65 | 0.94 | RWA regulatory framework implementation |
| September | 0.72 | 1.05 | Institutional Position Quarterly Report Disclosure |
| October | 0.80 | 1.18 | Expectations for U.S. election policies |
| November | 0.95 | 1.45 | Traditional financial institutions entering the market |
| December | 1.20 | 2.05 | Year-end liquidity easing |
Table: Monthly ONDO for 2025 Price Prediction with key catalysts
- Pessimistic Scenario (Probability 30%): If the $0.66 support is broken, it may drop to $0.45 (annual decline of 55%).
- Baseline Scenario (50% probability): Q3 stabilizes at $0.80, Q4 targets $1.37 (annual increase of 102%).
- Optimistic scenario (probability 20%): The RWA sector explodes, challenging the historical high of $2.05 in December (annual growth rate of 203%).
CoinPedia analysts point out: “The weekly chart of ONDO shows that it is at the end of a symmetrical triangle, and the energy accumulated in 2024 may be released violently at the end of 2025.”
Long-term Forecast (2026 – 2030): Can the RWA Narrative Support a Tenfold Growth?
As a leader in the real-world asset (RWA) sector, the long-term value of ONDO is deeply tied to the scale of tokenized assets:
- 2026: Expected range $0.70 – $4.15. If institutions like BlackRock increase RWA allocation, it may break through the upper limit.
- 2028: Conservative target $1.33 (Bitget), aggressive target $6.90 (TradingView). The divergence stems from differing assumptions about the global RWA penetration rate (3% vs 12%).
- 2030: Consensus peak $9.30, corresponding market cap $93 billion. Conditions to be met: RWA market size exceeds $10 trillion + ONDO market share 15%.
It is worth noting that the probability of reaching a $10 target within this decade is less than 5%, and it can only be achieved with large-scale allocation of RWA by global pension funds.
Investor Operation Guide: Three Types of Strategies to Respond to Volatile Markets
Short-term Traders (Holding Period Less than 1 Month)
- Current Price $0.677, can take a small long position, stop loss at $0.65
- Break above $0.75 (21-day EMA) to increase position, target $0.90
Medium-term Investors (Holding Period 1 Year)
- Tiered Accumulation: $0.70 (30%), $0.60 (50%), $0.50 (20%)
- Target for 2025 $1.37, take profit 50%; remaining position aiming for $2.05
Long-term Holders (Holding Period Greater than 3 Years)
- Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy: Invest a fixed amount monthly to minimize timing risk
- 2030 Target $7.45, Potential Return 1,000%
Conclusion: Finding Certainty in Uncertainty
ONDO’s 2025 will walk between “reality and narrative”: short-term pressured by a bearish trend on the technical front, long-term benefiting from the trillion-level blue ocean of RWA. For rational investors, the $0.66 – $0.70 range already has allocation value, but strict position management and stop-loss discipline must be observed. When the “whales” of traditional finance truly flood into tokenized assets, ONDO may become a leader in the next bull market.
