Entering the last week of June 2025, the price of BTC continued to fluctuate at high levels, maintaining a trading price above $106,100 on June 25. Although it briefly fell to around $98,000 due to geopolitical influences, the price quickly rebounded and reestablished itself above the psychological barrier of $100,000, once again proving that the market’s bullish foundation remains solid.

Current BTC price performance

Figure:https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT

From June 24 to 25, the intraday fluctuation range of BTC was between $103,200 and $106,400; on June 21, affected by sudden news, it briefly fell below the key support level, touching $98,500, but completed a technical rebound in just 48 hours. This “break - rebound - re-stabilization” structure is seen by many analysts as a healthy correction in the bull run.

Market recovery after the alleviation of geopolitical conflicts

The trigger for this brief pullback was the tense situation in the Middle East and the temporary interruption of energy transport routes in Europe, which heightened risk aversion in global markets. But the good news is that on June 22, the United Nations emergency meeting reached a temporary ceasefire framework agreement, quickly easing geopolitical conflicts and leading to a rapid recovery in financial markets. The rebound of the NASDAQ and S&P in the US stock market drove the inflow of risk assets, and the crypto market began to regain upward momentum starting June 23. BTC also recouped its losses and returned to above $100,000 on the 24th.

Institutional demand supports price stability

Unlike the bull run in 2021, institutional power plays a key role behind the current surge. Since June, there has been a continuous net inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity. According to data from Farside Investors, the IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF) alone saw an inflow of over $450 million in the past 7 days.

In addition, many publicly listed companies around the world have also publicly included BTC in their asset allocation. Tesla reiterated its long-term strategy of holding BTC, and Norway’s Green Minerals converted part of its dollar reserves into Bitcoin, becoming the first green energy mining company to publicly disclose its BTC allocation.

ETF approval and regulatory dynamics

In mid-June, the US SEC updated the registration process for Bitcoin spot ETFs, indicating that more products are expected to launch within the year. Meanwhile, Canada, Singapore, and Japan have also respectively relaxed the compliance thresholds for crypto financial products, injecting compliant confidence into the global crypto market.

Especially conservative institutions such as pension and insurance funds are evaluating allocation ratios. If investment permissions are further opened, it will bring billions of dollars of potential incremental funds to BTC.

Mining and halving expectations

Bitcoin will experience its next block reward halving at the end of 2024, and 2025 will be one of the years where the halving effect is most pronounced. Currently, the average cost for miners to mine 1 BTC has reached about $72,000. With rising electricity costs and equipment upgrade cycles, miners’ willingness to sell has decreased, further limiting market liquidity.

In the past three halving cycles, Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs one year after the halving. This trend has strengthened the long-term bullish stance of many investors and has also heightened market FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment.

Summary and Risk Warning

The BTC price quickly stabilized above $100,000 after a brief pullback, reflecting the market’s high resilience and fundamental support. Behind the current market situation, there is not only a capital inflow due to the easing of geopolitical conflicts but also continuous institutional buying, ETF progress, and support from the mining economy.

However, novice investors still need to remain rational: market fluctuations are unavoidable, and the future macro environment may still experience unforeseen disturbances. It is recommended to set up profit-taking and stop-loss mechanisms, avoid heavy trading, and pay attention to regulatory news and on-chain dynamics, gradually building a robust investment logic.